Department of GIS, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, 19967 15433, Iran.
Infectious Diseases Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.
Parasit Vectors. 2020 Nov 11;13(1):572. doi: 10.1186/s13071-020-04447-x.
BACKGROUND: Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a neglected tropical disease worldwide, especially the Middle East. Although previous works attempt to model the ZCL spread using various environmental factors, the interactions between vectors (Phlebotomus papatasi), reservoir hosts, humans, and the environment can affect its spread. Considering all of these aspects is not a trivial task. METHODS: An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions. RESULTS: The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .
背景:动物源皮肤利什曼病(ZCL)是一种全球性的被忽视的热带病,尤其是在中东地区。尽管之前的研究工作尝试使用各种环境因素来建立 ZCL 传播模型,但媒介(白蛉)、储存宿主、人类和环境之间的相互作用会影响其传播。考虑到所有这些方面并不是一项简单的任务。
方法:基于主体的模型(ABM)是一种相对较新的方法,它为分析此类复杂系统中的相互作用、生物和环境因素的异质性提供了一个框架。本研究的目的是设计和开发一种基于 GIS 能力的 ABM,结合媒介和储存宿主的生物行为,以及改进的易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)传染病模型,以探索 ZCL 的传播。实施了各种情景来分析不同部分的未来 ZCL 传播,包括伊朗东北部戈勒斯坦省东北部 Maraveh Tappeh 县,以及替代的社会生态条件。
结果:结果证实,疾病的传播主要发生在沙漠、低海拔地区和河畔人口中心。结果还表明,限制人类的活动可以降低传播的严重程度。此外,ZCL 的传播具有特定的时间模式,因为最常见的病例发生在秋季。评估测试还表明,结果与报告的时空趋势之间存在相似性。
结论:本研究证明了 ABM 对 ZCL 传播进行建模和预测的能力和效率。所提出方法的结果可以被认为是公共卫生管理和控制媒介种群的指南。
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