Effect of reproductive management programs for first service on replacement dairy heifer economics.

Our objective was to evaluate cash flow for dairy heifers managed for first service with programs that relied primarily on insemination at detected estrus (AIE), timed AI (TAI), or a combination of both. Holstein heifers from 2 commercial farms were randomized to receive first service with sexed semen after the beginning of the AI period (AIP) at 12 mo of age with 1 of 3 treatments: (1) PGF+AIE (n = 317): AIE after PGF injections every 14 d (up to 3) starting at the beginning of the AIP; heifers not AIE 9 d after the third PGF were enrolled in the 5d-Cosynch (5dCP) protocol; (2) ALL-TAI (n = 315): TAI after ovulation synchronization with the 5dCP protocol; and (3) PGF+TAI (n = 334): AIE after 2 PGF injections 14 d apart (second PGF at beginning of AIP). If not AIE 9 d after the second PGF, the 5dCP protocol was used for TAI. After first service heifers were AIE or received TAI after the 5dCP with conventional semen. Individual heifer cash flow (CF) for up to a 15-mo period (d 0 = beginning of AIP) was calculated using reproductive cost (rearing only), feed cost (rearing only), income over feed cost (lactation only), calf value, operating cost, and with or without replacement cost. A stochastic analysis with Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate differences in CF for a range of market values for inputs and outputs. Time to pregnancy for up to 100 d after the beginning of the AIP was analyzed by Cox's proportional regression, binary data with logistic regression, and continuous outcomes by ANOVA. Time to pregnancy (hazard ratio and 95% CI) was reduced for the ALL-TAI versus the PGF+AIE treatment (1.20; 1.02-1.42), but it was similar for ALL-TAI and PGF+TAI (1.13; 0.95-1.33) and the PGF+AIE and PGF+TAI treatments (1.07; 0.91-1.25). The proportion of heifers not pregnant by 100 d did not differ (PGF+AIE = 7.0%; PGF+TAI = 6.5%; ALL-TAI = 6.8%). When including replacement cost, CF ($/slot per 15 mo) differences were $51 and $42 in favor of the PGF+TAI and ALL-TAI compared with the PGF+AIE treatment, and $9 in favor of the PGF+TAI compared with the ALL-TAI treatment but did not differ statistically. Excluding heifers that were replaced to evaluate the effect of timing of pregnancy differences only, the difference in CF between the PGF+AIE with the PGF+TAI and ALL-TAI treatment was the same (i.e., $15) and favored the programs that used more TAI, but also did not differ statistically. Stochastic simulation results were in line with those of the deterministic analysis confirming the benefit of the programs that used more TAI. We concluded that submission of heifers for first service with TAI only or TAI in combination with AIE generated numerical differences in CF of potential value to commercial dairy farms. Reduced rearing cost and increased revenue during lactation increased CF under fixed (not statistically significant) or simulated variable market conditions.