Delhey Kaspar, Dale James, Valcu Mihai, Kempenaers Bart
Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Seewiesen, 82319 Germany; School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, 3800 Australia.
School of Natural and Computational Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, 0745 New Zealand.
Curr Biol. 2020 Dec 7;30(23):R1406-R1407. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2020.10.070.
How species will adapt to future climate change is a key question in modern biology. One way to predict such adaptation is to draw from our knowledge of current spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. These are often summarised by different ecogeographical rules that describe how environmental gradients predict geographic variation in form and function. A recent review in Current Biology [1] synthesises how ecogeographical rules can lead to predictions about future responses to climate change in terms of appendage size, physiology, life-history traits, distribution and colour. Based on Gloger's rule, which predicts darker coloured animals in warm and wet environments, Tian and Benton [1] suggest that animals will become darker with global warming. Although the authors mention that uncertainties in the way this ecogeographical rule is interpreted make predictions difficult [1], here we argue that the opposite scenario is more likely - that selection will favour animals with lighter colours.
物种将如何适应未来的气候变化是现代生物学中的一个关键问题。预测这种适应的一种方法是借鉴我们对当前表型变异空间模式的了解。这些通常由不同的生态地理规则总结，这些规则描述了环境梯度如何预测形态和功能的地理变异。《当代生物学》[1]最近的一篇综述综合了生态地理规则如何能够在附肢大小、生理学、生活史特征、分布和颜色方面对未来气候变化的响应做出预测。基于格洛格尔法则（该法则预测在温暖潮湿环境中动物颜色更深），田和本顿[1]认为随着全球变暖动物会变得更黑。尽管作者提到这种生态地理规则的解释方式存在不确定性使得预测变得困难[1]，但在这里我们认为相反的情况更有可能发生——即选择将有利于颜色更浅的动物。
