Population dynamics of diseased corals: Effects of a Shut Down Reaction outbreak in Puerto Rican Acropora cervicornis.

Chronic coral reef degradation has been characterized by a significant decline in the population abundance and live tissue cover of scleractinian corals across the wider Caribbean. Acropora cervicornis is among the species whose populations have suffered an unprecedented collapse throughout the region. This species, which once dominated the shallow-water reef communities, is susceptible to a wide range of stressors, resulting in a general lack of recovery following disturbances. A. cervicornis is a critical contributor to the structure, function, and resilience of Caribbean coral reefs. Therefore, it is essential to identify the factors that influence their demographic and population performance. Diseases are one of the factors that are compromising the recovery of coral populations. In this chapter, we use size-based population matrix models to evaluate the population-level effect of a Shut Down Reaction Disease (SDR) outbreak, one of the less-understood diseases affecting this coral. The model was parameterized by following the fate of 105 colonies for 2 years at Tamarindo reef in Culebra, Puerto Rico. SDR, which affected 78% of the population, led to a rapid decline in colony abundance. The estimated population growth rate (λ) for the diseased population was more than six times lower than would be expected for a population at equilibrium. It was found that colonies in the smaller size class (≤100cm total linear length) were more likely to get infected and succumbing to the disease than larger colonies. Model simulations indicate that: (1) under the estimated λ, the population would reach extinction in 5 years; (2) an SDR outbreak as intense as the one observed in this study can lead to a notable decline in stochastic λs even when relatively rare (i.e. 10% probability of occurring); and (3) disease incidence as low as 5% can cause the population to lose its ecological functionality (e.g., reach a pseudo-extinction level of 10% of the initial population size) 33 years before disappearing. SDR and probably any other similarly virulent disease could thus be a major driver of local extinction events of A. cervicornis.