College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
College of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin, 300222, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(24):30858-30872. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12599-1. Epub 2021 Feb 16.
The energy transition from coal and oil to renewable energy, nuclear energy, and natural gas is a fundamental way for emission reduction of China's power generation sector. Until now, research on the drivers of CO emissions from China's power generation sector has generally evaluated the energy mix as a whole, with a lack of exploration of the decomposition of different types of energy. This paper uses both index decomposition analysis (IDA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explore the impacts of energy transition on CO emissions in the power generation sector during periods of 2002-2007, 2007-2012, and 2012-2017. We find that the results of IDA and SDA are almost consistent, indicating that our results are robust. During the whole study period, CO emissions of power generation sector increased by 2447 Mt, of which the fossil fuel structure significantly contributed 642 Mt of incremental emissions (IDA). The thermal power generation efficiency was a dominator for reducing emissions, with a total reduction of 586 Mt (IDA). Simultaneously, the impacts of renewable energy and nuclear energy on emission reduction tend to be strengthening over time, with values changing from 38 Mt and -5 Mt in 2002-2007 to -219 Mt and -83 Mt (IDA) in 2012-2017, respectively. Based on the results, we put forward some suggestions such as promoting coal-to-gas, renewable energy, and nuclear energy in power generation to cut down CO emissions of China's power generation sector.
从煤炭、石油向可再生能源、核能和天然气的能源转型，是中国发电部门减排的根本途径。到目前为止，关于中国发电部门 CO2 排放驱动因素的研究一般都是整体评估能源组合，缺乏对不同类型能源的分解探索。本文利用指数分解分析（IDA）和结构分解分析（SDA），分别在 2002-2007 年、2007-2012 年和 2012-2017 年期间，探讨了能源转型对发电部门 CO2 排放的影响。我们发现，IDA 和 SDA 的结果几乎一致，这表明我们的结果是稳健的。在整个研究期间，发电部门的 CO2 排放量增加了 2447 百万吨，其中化石燃料结构显著贡献了 642 百万吨的增量排放（IDA）。火力发电效率是减排的主导因素，总减排量为 586 百万吨（IDA）。同时，可再生能源和核能对减排的影响随着时间的推移而趋于增强，其影响值从 2002-2007 年的 38 百万吨和-5 百万吨分别变化到 2012-2017 年的-219 百万吨和-83 百万吨（IDA）。基于这些结果，我们提出了一些建议，如在发电中推广煤改气、可再生能源和核能，以减少中国发电部门的 CO2 排放。
