Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Stat Methods Med Res. 2021 Jan;30(1):22-34. doi: 10.1177/0962280220938977.
In much of the Greater Mekong Sub-region, malaria is now confined to patches and small foci of transmission. Malaria transmission is seasonal with the spatiotemporal patterns being associated with variation in environmental and climatic factors. However, the possible effect at different lag periods between meteorological variables and clinical malaria has not been well studied in the region. Thus, in this study we developed distributed lagged modelling accounting for spatiotemporal excessive zero cases in a malaria elimination setting. A multivariate framework was also extended to incorporate multiple data streams and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns from multiple parasite species via their lagged association with climatic variables. A simulation study was conducted to examine robustness of the methodology and a case study is provided of weekly data of clinical malaria cases at sub-district level in Thailand.
在大湄公河次区域的大部分地区，疟疾现在仅限于零星和小范围的传播。疟疾传播具有季节性，时空模式与环境和气候因素的变化有关。然而，在该地区，气象变量与临床疟疾之间不同滞后期的可能影响尚未得到很好的研究。因此，在这项研究中，我们开发了分布式滞后模型，考虑了在疟疾消除环境中时空过多零病例的情况。还扩展了一个多变量框架，以纳入多个数据流，并通过与气候变量的滞后关联来研究多种寄生虫物种的时空模式。进行了一项模拟研究，以检验该方法的稳健性，并提供了泰国分地区层面每周临床疟疾病例数据的案例研究。
