BACKGROUND

Infection with Haemophilus influenzae (Hi) or Moraxella catarrhalis (Mcat) is a risk factor for exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The ability to predict Hi- or Mcat-associated exacerbations may be useful for interventions developed to reduce exacerbation frequency.

METHODS

In a COPD observational study, sputum samples were collected at monthly stable-state visits and at exacerbation during two years of follow-up. Bacterial species (Hi, Mcat) were identified by culture and quantitative PCR assay. Post-hoc analyses were conducted to assess: (1) first Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbations given presence or absence of Hi or Mcat at the screening visit (stable-state timepoint); (2) first Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbations given presence or absence of Hi or Mcat at stable timepoints within previous 90 days; (3) second Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbations given presence or absence of Hi or Mcat at stable timepoints within previous 90 days. Percentages and risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

RESULTS

PCR results for analyses 1, 2 and 3 (samples from 84, 88 and 83 subjects, respectively) showed that the risk of an Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbation is significantly higher if sputum sample was Hi- or Mcat-positive than if Hi- or Mcat-negative at previous stable timepoints (apart from Mcat in analysis 3); RRs ranged from 2.1 to 3.2 for Hi and 1.9 to 2.6 for Mcat.For all analyses, the percentage of Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbations given previous Hi- or Mcat-positive stable timepoints was higher than the percentage of Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbations if Hi- or Mcat-negative at previous stable timepoints. Percentage of Hi- or Mcat-positive exacerbations given previous Hi- or Mcat-negative stable timepoints was 26.3%-37.0% for Hi and 17.6%-19.7% for Mcat.

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of Hi or Mcat at a stable timepoint was associated with a higher risk of a subsequent Hi- or Mcat-associated exacerbation compared with earlier absence. However, a large percentage of Hi- or Mcat-associated exacerbations was not associated with Hi/Mcat detection at an earlier timepoint. This suggests that administration of an intervention to reduce these exacerbations should be independent of bacterial presence at baseline. Trial Registration https://clinicaltrials.gov/ ; NCT01360398, registered May 25, 2011.