Zhao Dandan, Liu Junguo, Sun Laixiang, Ye Bin, Hubacek Klaus, Feng Kuishuang, Varis Olli
Water & Development Research Group, Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, PO Box 15200, 00076 Espoo, Finland; School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Water Res. 2021 May 1;195:116986. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2021.116986. Epub 2021 Feb 27.
Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water assessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a "nexus" approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios including nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposition of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs.
可持续水资源管理是可持续发展目标（SDGs）之一，其特点是在区域到全球尺度上与其他可持续发展目标高度相互依存。许多水资源评估研究局限于筒仓思维，主要关注与水相关的后果，而缺乏对经济、社会和环境维度的权衡与协同效应的量化。为填补这一知识空白，我们提出一种“关联”方法，该方法整合了水资源供应受限的多区域投入产出（混合MRIO）模型、情景分析和多标准决策分析（MCDA），以量化中国首都地区（即京津冀城市群）部门层面的权衡与协同效应。我们制定了总共120种产业转型情景，包括当前发展路径下九个高用水强度和高用水量的主要行业，以促进对节水措施引发的经济损失、社会目标（此处为就业岗位数量）和环境保护（以灰水足迹代表水污染）之间的权衡与协同效应分析。我们的模拟结果表明，在该地区实施可容忍的水资源限制（将区域水资源压力水平从严重降至中度所需的必要用水量减少）将导致平均经济损失684（±160）亿元人民币（2012年1元人民币≈0.158美元），占区域GDP的1.3%，损失194（±18）万个就业岗位（即劳动力的3.5%），以及减少127（±40）亿立方米的灰水足迹，约占区域灰水足迹的2.2%。在农业、食品和烟草加工、电力和热力生产以及化工等高用水部门实施可容忍的水配给将导致最低的经济和就业损失以及最大的环境效益。基于多标准决策分析，我们选择了在经济、社会和环境绩效方面表现最佳的10种情景作为指导未来水资源管理和建议产业转型政策的参考。这种综合方法可以成为一个强大的政策支持工具，用于：1）评估资源约束下多标准之间以及跨多个区域部门的权衡与协同效应；2）量化不同遏制措施的短期供应链效应；3）促进对区域层面可持续发展目标更有洞察力的评估，从而确定地方政府和从业者实现可持续发展目标的优先事项。
