Understanding risk factors for postoperative mortality in neonates based on explainable machine learning technology.

PURPOSE

We aimed to introduce an explainable machine learning technology to help clinicians understand the risk factors for neonatal postoperative mortality at different levels.

METHODS

A total of 1481 neonatal surgeries performed between May 2016 and December 2019 at a children's hospital were included in this study. Perioperative variables, including vital signs during surgery, were collected and used to predict postoperative mortality. Several widely used machine learning methods were trained and evaluated on split datasets. The model with the best performance was explained by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) at different levels.

RESULTS

The random forest model achieved the best performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 in the validation set. TreeExplainer of SHAP was used to identify the risk factors for neonatal postoperative mortality. The explainable machine learning model not only explains the risk factors identified by traditional statistical analysis but also identifies additional risk factors. The visualization of feature contributions at different levels by SHAP makes the "black-box" machine learning model easily understood by clinicians and families. Based on this explanation, vital signs during surgery play an important role in eventual survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The explainable machine learning model not only exhibited good performance in predicting neonatal surgical mortality but also helped clinicians understand each risk factor and each individual case.