南非青年可预防的死亡：衡量无传染性疾病情况下的预期寿命及其对医疗保健系统的影响。

Preventable deaths among youth in South Africa: Measuring life expectancy in the absence of non-communicable diseases and its implications for the healthcare system.

机构信息

Demography and Population Studies, Schools of Social Sciences and Public Health, Faculties of Humanities and Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

出版信息

S Afr Med J. 2021 Mar 31;111(4):361-364. doi: 10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i4.14790.

DOI:10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i4.14790

PMID:33944771

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause premature mortality among youth. Associated with lifestyle and behavioural choices, these diseases and deaths can and should be prevented among young people. This article presents data showing the gains in life expectancy among youth in the absence of NCD causes of death.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the levels of NCD mortality among youth (15 - 24 years of age) in South Africa (SA) and show the current and projected additional years of life gained with the elimination of heart disease, cancer and diabetes.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study using 20 years of death notification forms from SA (1997 - 2016). The data were nationally representative and the sample was 62 395 youth deaths (age 15 - 24 years) from the selected NCDs. Cause-specific mortality rates, expressed as percentages, were estimated by age group and sex. Cause-deleted life-table techniques were used to estimate current and projected life expectancy (ex) and life expectancy in the absence of specific NCDs (e-ix).

RESULTS

Death rates from NCDs are increasing over time among youth. Total death rates from cancer increased from 1.09% in 1997 - 2001 to 1.51% in 2012 - 2016. Female death rates from heart disease are almost double those for males. The number of additional years of life gained with elimination of these causes ranges from 2.2 to 10.3. Projected life expectancies show that males could gain as much as 1 additional year and females 1.06 years by 2035.

CONCLUSIONS

Urgent action needs to be taken to prevent further mortality from non-communicable causes among youth. The results of this study are important to the SA healthcare system and to public health practitioners whose aim is to reduce the strain on public resources and reduce mortality among youth. Future studies should estimate the extent of NCD mortality in households and communities with the aim of developing macro-level interventions.

摘要

背景

非传染性疾病（NCDs）导致年轻人过早死亡。这些疾病和死亡与生活方式和行为选择有关，但可以而且应该在年轻人中预防。本文介绍了在没有 NCD 死亡原因的情况下，年轻人预期寿命增加的数据。

目的

估计南非（SA）青年（15-24 岁）的 NCD 死亡率，并展示消除心脏病、癌症和糖尿病后当前和预计增加的预期寿命。

方法

这是一项使用来自南非（1997-2016 年）20 年死亡通知表的横断面研究。数据具有全国代表性，样本为选定 NCD 中 62395 名青年死亡（年龄 15-24 岁）。按年龄组和性别估计特定死亡率，以百分比表示。使用特定 NCD 消除后的生存表技术估计当前和预计预期寿命（ex）和特定 NCD 消除后的预期寿命（e-ix）。

结果

青年人群中 NCD 死亡率随时间呈上升趋势。癌症总死亡率从 1997-2001 年的 1.09%上升到 2012-2016 年的 1.51%。女性心脏病死亡率几乎是男性的两倍。消除这些原因可增加的预期寿命在 2.2 到 10.3 年之间。预测的预期寿命表明，到 2035 年，男性可能增加 1 年，女性增加 1.06 年。