McDonald Jenni L, Hodgson Dave
Veterinary Department, Cats Protection National Cat Centre Haywards Heath UK.
Bristol Veterinary School University of Bristol Bristol UK.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Apr 2;11(9):4325-4338. doi: 10.1002/ece3.7330. eCollection 2021 May.
Free-roaming animal populations are hard to count, and professional experts are a limited resource. There is vast untapped potential in the data collected by nonprofessional scientists who volunteer their time to population monitoring, but citizen science (CS) raises concerns around data quality and biases. A particular concern in abundance modeling is the presence of false positives that can occur due to misidentification of nontarget species. Here, we introduce Integrated Abundance Models (IAMs) that integrate citizen and expert data to allow robust inference of population abundance meanwhile accounting for biases caused by misidentification. We used simulation experiments to confirm that IAMs successfully remove the inflation of abundance estimates caused by false-positive detections and can provide accurate estimates of both bias and abundance. We illustrate the approach with a case study on unowned domestic cats, which are commonly confused with owned, and infer their abundance by analyzing a combination of CS data and expert data. Our case study finds that relying on CS data alone, either through simple summation or via traditional modeling approaches, can vastly inflate abundance estimates. IAMs provide an adaptable framework, increasing the opportunity for further development of the approach, tailoring to specific systems and robust use of CS data.
自由放养的动物种群数量难以统计,而且专业专家是有限的资源。在那些自愿投入时间进行种群监测的非专业科学家所收集的数据中,存在着大量未被开发的潜力,但公民科学(CS)引发了人们对数据质量和偏差的担忧。在丰度建模中,一个特别令人担忧的问题是可能由于非目标物种的误识别而出现假阳性。在这里,我们引入了综合丰度模型(IAMs),该模型整合了公民和专家数据,以便在考虑误识别导致的偏差的同时,对种群丰度进行可靠推断。我们通过模拟实验证实,IAMs成功消除了由假阳性检测导致的丰度估计值的虚增,并能够提供偏差和丰度的准确估计。我们通过一个关于无主家猫的案例研究来说明该方法,无主家猫通常容易与有主家猫混淆,我们通过分析公民科学数据和专家数据的组合来推断它们的丰度。我们的案例研究发现,仅依靠公民科学数据,无论是通过简单求和还是传统建模方法,都可能极大地夸大丰度估计值。IAMs提供了一个适应性强的框架,增加了进一步开发该方法、针对特定系统进行调整以及可靠使用公民科学数据的机会。