动物相关因素预测牛坏疽和气性坏疽的致死病例。
Animal-related factors predicting fatal cases of blackleg and gas gangrene in cattle.
机构信息
Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria.
Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung, Fachabteilung Gesundheit und Pflegemanagement, Graz, Austria.
出版信息
Vet Rec. 2021 Nov;189(10):e558. doi: 10.1002/vetr.558. Epub 2021 Jun 9.
BACKGROUND
Blackleg and gas gangrene are acute clostridial infections primarily affecting cattle. The objectives of this study were to identify (i) animal-related factors influencing the occurrence and (ii) prognostic pathological findings supporting the differentiation of fatal blackleg and gas gangrene cases in the cattle population from 1998 to 2018 in Styria, Austria.
METHODS
Two binomial logistic models were applied to analyse the research questions. Additionally, cross-validations were performed to estimate the accuracy of the predictive models.
RESULTS
Model results show that animal-related factors (i.e., age, geographical discovery location of dead cattle, vaccination status) significantly influence the occurrence of blackleg when compared to gas gangrene. Pathological findings are similar for both diseases.
CONCLUSIONS
Model results reveal that using animal-related factors has a better accuracy to predict the fatal cases caused by both pathogens. Thus, the authors recommend not relying on pathological findings as predictive factors in the differentiation between blackleg and gas gangrene in cattle.
背景
坏疽和气性坏疽是主要影响牛的急性梭状芽胞杆菌感染。本研究的目的是确定（i）影响发病的与动物相关的因素，以及（ii）支持区分 1998 年至 2018 年在奥地利施蒂里亚州牛群中致命性坏疽和气性坏疽病例的预后病理发现。
方法
应用了两个二项逻辑模型来分析研究问题。此外，还进行了交叉验证以估计预测模型的准确性。
结果
模型结果表明，与气性坏疽相比，与动物相关的因素（即年龄、发现死牛的地理位置、疫苗接种状态）显著影响坏疽的发生。两种疾病的病理发现相似。
结论
模型结果表明，使用与动物相关的因素可以更准确地预测两种病原体引起的致命病例。因此，作者建议不要依赖病理发现作为牛的坏疽和气性坏疽之间的区分预测因素。
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