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COVID-19 恐惧与波动率指数变动:东盟股票市场的实证洞察。

COVID-19 fear and volatility index movements: empirical insights from ASEAN stock markets.

机构信息

School of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Taylor's University Malaysia, Subang Jaya, Malaysia.

School of Finance and Accounting, Fuzhou University of International Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, 350202, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Dec;28(47):67167-67184. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-15064-1. Epub 2021 Jul 10.


DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-15064-1
PMID:34245412
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8272449/
Abstract

This research aims to look into the effect of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets in seven of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN-7) member countries from March 21, 2020 to April 31, 2020. This paper uses a ST-HAR-type Bayesian posterior model and it highlights the stock market of this ongoing crisis, such as, COVID-19 outbreak in all countries and related industries. The empirical results shown a clear evidence of a transition during COVID-19 crisis regime, also crisis intensity and timing differences. The most negatively impacted industries were health care and consumer services due to the Covid-19 drug-race and international travel restrictions. More so, study results estimated that only a small number of sectors are affected by COVID-19 fear including  health care, consumer services, utilities, and technology, significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10%, that measure current volatility's reliance on weekly and monthly variables. Secondly, it is found that there is almost no chance that the COVID-19 pandemic would positively affect the stock market performance in all the countries, mainly Indonesia and Singapore were the countries most affected. Thirdly, results shown that Thailand's stock market output has dropped by 15%. Results shows that COVID-19 fear causes an eventual reason of public attention towards stock market volatility. The study presented comprehensive way forwards to stabilize movement of ASEAN equity market's volatility index and guided the policy implications to key stakeholders that can better help to mitigate drastic impacts of COVID-19 fear on the performance of equity markets.

摘要

这项研究旨在调查 2020 年 3 月 21 日至 2020 年 4 月 31 日期间 COVID-19 对东南亚国家联盟(东盟)7 个成员国新兴股票市场的影响。本文使用 ST-HAR 型贝叶斯后验模型,重点介绍了这场正在进行的危机中的股票市场,如各国的 COVID-19 爆发和相关行业。实证结果清楚地表明了 COVID-19 危机期间存在转型,同时也存在危机强度和时间差异。受影响最大的行业是医疗保健和消费者服务,因为 COVID-19 药物竞赛和国际旅行限制。更重要的是,研究结果估计,只有少数几个行业受到 COVID-19 恐惧的影响,包括医疗保健、消费者服务、公用事业和技术,在 1%、5%和 10%的水平上具有显著意义,这衡量了当前波动对每周和每月变量的依赖程度。其次,几乎可以肯定的是,COVID-19 大流行不会对所有国家的股票市场表现产生积极影响,主要是印度尼西亚和新加坡受到的影响最大。第三,结果表明,泰国的股票市场产出下降了 15%。结果表明,COVID-19 恐惧是导致公众对股票市场波动关注度增加的最终原因。该研究提出了全面的方法来稳定东盟股票市场波动率指数的波动,并为利益相关者提供政策建议,以更好地减轻 COVID-19 恐惧对股票市场表现的巨大影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/243263cc02b3/11356_2021_15064_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/a2105e75c5c3/11356_2021_15064_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/efc2426009c2/11356_2021_15064_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/243263cc02b3/11356_2021_15064_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/a2105e75c5c3/11356_2021_15064_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/efc2426009c2/11356_2021_15064_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5a93/8272449/243263cc02b3/11356_2021_15064_Fig3_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
COVID-19 fear and volatility index movements: empirical insights from ASEAN stock markets.

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021-12

[2]
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[3]
The impact of Covid-19 on G7 stock markets volatility: Evidence from a ST-HAR model.

Int Rev Financ Anal. 2021-3

[4]
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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
The relationship between political instability and stock market performance: An analysis of the MSCI index in the case of Pakistan.

PLoS One. 2023

[2]
Impact of the Global Fear Index (COVID-19 Panic) on the S&P Global Indices Associated with Natural Resources, Agribusiness, Energy, Metals, and Mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer Entropy.

Entropy (Basel). 2023-2-8

[3]
Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China.

Socioecon Plann Sci. 2023-2

[4]
Economic-Environmental Law Guarantee of the Green and Sustainable Development: Role of Health Expenditure and Innovation.

Front Public Health. 2022

[5]
Dynamics lead-lag relationship of jumps among Chinese stock index and futures market during the Covid-19 epidemic.

Res Int Bus Finance. 2022-10

[6]
Assessing the Effects of COVID-19 on Restaurant Business From Restaurant Owners' Perspective.

Front Psychol. 2022-4-15

[7]
Assessing Financial Risk Spillover and Panic Impact of Covid-19 on European and Vietnam Stock market.

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022-4

[8]
How COVID-19 induced panic on stock price and green finance markets: global economic recovery nexus from volatility dynamics.

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022-4

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