Zhang L, Yang J R, Xia L, Chen H Q, Chen X L, Qian X J, Li Y X, Yang J W, Hu X Q, Peng W W, Pan W D
Department of Pancreatic-Hepato-Biliary Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510655, China.
Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, China.
Zhonghua Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2021 Jul 27;101(28):2203-2209. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112137-20210107-00039.
To explored the effect of preoperative antiviral therapy on the prognosis of microvascular tumor thrombi patients, and to established a prognostic prediction model for these patients after radical resection of liver cancer. The clinicopathological and survival data of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with microvascular tumor thrombus who underwent radical resection in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015 were retrospectively collected. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the survival curve, and log-rank test was used to compare the prognosis of patients with and without antiviral treatment before operation. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to screen predictive factors. R software was used to make predictive nomogram, and discrimination and calibration degree were used to evaluate the prediction model. Among all 153 patients, 22 were female and 131 were male, aged (51.3±11.7) years. The preoperative antiviral therapy significantly improved overall survival and recurrence-free survival (χ=41.423, 54.389; both <0.001). According to the results of multivariate and regression analysis, preoperative antiviral therapy (=0.301,95%:0.171-0.532,<0.001), alpha fetoprotein (=1.226,95%:1.157-1.776,=0.032) and tumor size (=1.008,95%:1.001-1.016,=0.02) were important prognostic factors for overall survival. The area under curve value of 3-year survival prediction model was 0.749(95%: 0.712-0.782), and that of 5-year survival prediction model was 0.755(95%: 0.724-0.793), with good calibration. Preoperative anti hepatitis B virus(HBV) therapy can significantly improve the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma complicated with microvascular tumor thrombus, we develope the prediction models of 3-year and 5-year survival rate that can improve the reference for clinical work and benefit patients.
探讨术前抗病毒治疗对微血管癌栓患者预后的影响,并建立肝癌根治术后此类患者的预后预测模型。回顾性收集2013年1月1日至2015年12月31日在中山大学附属第三医院接受根治性切除的伴有微血管癌栓的肝细胞癌患者的临床病理及生存数据。采用Kaplan-Meier法计算生存曲线,采用log-rank检验比较术前接受抗病毒治疗和未接受抗病毒治疗患者的预后。使用单因素和多因素Cox比例风险回归模型筛选预测因素。使用R软件制作预测列线图,并采用区分度和校准度评估预测模型。153例患者中,女性22例,男性131例,年龄(51.3±11.7)岁。术前抗病毒治疗显著改善了总生存期和无复发生存期(χ=41.423,54.389;均<0.001)。根据多因素回归分析结果,术前抗病毒治疗(=0.301,95%:0.171-0.532,<0.001)、甲胎蛋白(=1.226,95%:1.157-1.776,=0.032)和肿瘤大小(=1.008,95%:1.001-1.016,=0.02)是总生存期的重要预后因素。3年生存预测模型的曲线下面积值为0.749(95%:0.712-0.782),5年生存预测模型的曲线下面积值为0.755(95%:0.724-0.793),校准良好。术前抗乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)治疗可显著改善伴有微血管癌栓的肝细胞癌患者的预后,我们建立了3年和5年生存率预测模型,可为临床工作提供参考并使患者受益。