Remschmidt H, Müller H
Klinik und Poliklinik für Kinder- und Jugendpsychiatrie, Philipps-Universität Marburg.
Z Kinder Jugendpsychiatr. 1987;15(4):327-41.
In a study of 36 patients with anorexia nervosa (age at onset: 14.5 +/- 1.9 years), an attempt was made to predict longterm outcome (follow-up interval: 7.8 +/- 3.77 years) from weight changes during inpatient treatment (duration of treatment: 156 +/- 76 days). Several statistical methods appropriate for use with longitudinal data were applied. The long-term course could be predicted correctly for 96% of the patients with a good or intermediate outcome (prognostic criteria of Morgan and Russel) and for 89% of those with a poor outcome. The most important factors predictive of a good outcome were relatively long time to stabilization of weight (greater than 47 days), a stabilized weight of at least 64% of ideal weight, low age at onset (less than 13 years) and a high variability in weight during inpatient treatment as compared with patients who had a poor prognosis.
在一项针对36名神经性厌食症患者（发病年龄：14.5±1.9岁）的研究中，研究人员尝试根据住院治疗期间的体重变化（治疗时长：156±76天）预测长期预后（随访间隔：7.8±3.77年）。应用了几种适用于纵向数据的统计方法。对于96%预后良好或中等（摩根和拉塞尔的预后标准）的患者以及89%预后较差的患者，长期病程能够被正确预测。预测良好预后的最重要因素包括体重稳定所需时间相对较长（超过47天）、稳定体重至少达到理想体重的64%、发病年龄较小（小于13岁）以及与预后较差的患者相比，住院治疗期间体重的高变异性。
