Elgammal Mohammed M, Ahmed Walid M A, Alshami Abdullah
College of Business and Economics, Qatar University, Qatar.
Department of Management, Ahmed Bin Mohamed Military College, Qatar.
Resour Policy. 2021 Dec;74:102334. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102334. Epub 2021 Sep 4.
This study sets out to provide fresh evidence on the dynamic interrelationships, at both return and volatility levels, between global equity, gold, and energy markets prior to and during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. We undertake our analysis within a bivariate GARCH(, ) framework, after orthogonalizing raw returns with respect to a rich set of relevant universal factors. Under the COVID-19 regime, we find bidirectional return spillover effects between equity and gold markets, and unidirectional mean spillovers from energy markets to the equity and gold counterparts. The results also suggest the presence of large reciprocal shock spillovers between equity and both of energy and gold markets, and cross-shock spillovers from energy to gold markets. Most probably driven by the recent oil price collapse, energy markets appear to have a substantial cross-volatility spillover impact on the others. Our results offer implications for policymakers and investors.
本研究旨在为新型冠状病毒爆发之前及期间全球股票、黄金和能源市场在回报和波动率层面的动态相互关系提供新的证据。在根据一系列丰富的相关通用因素对原始回报进行正交化处理之后,我们在二元GARCH(, )框架内进行分析。在新冠疫情期间,我们发现股票市场和黄金市场之间存在双向回报溢出效应,以及能源市场对股票市场和黄金市场的单向均值溢出效应。结果还表明,股票市场与能源市场和黄金市场之间存在巨大的相互冲击溢出效应,以及从能源市场到黄金市场的交叉冲击溢出效应。能源市场很可能受到近期油价暴跌的驱动,似乎对其他市场产生了重大的交叉波动率溢出影响。我们的研究结果为政策制定者和投资者提供了启示。