Department of Health, Society, and Behavior, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA.
Department of Sociology and Criminology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2022 Feb 3;77(2):389-395. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbab189.
This article focuses on the older Latino undocumented population and anticipates how their current demographic characteristics and health insurance coverage might affect future population size and health insurance trends.
We use the 2013-2018 American Community Survey as a baseline to project growth in the Latino 55 and older undocumented population over the next 20 years. We use the cohort component method to estimate population size across different migration scenarios and distinguish between aging in place and new immigration. We also examine contemporary health insurance coverage and chronic health conditions among 55 and older undocumented Latinos from the 2003-2014 California Health Interview Survey. We then project health insurance rates in 2038 among Latino immigrants under different migration and policy scenarios.
If current mortality, migration, and policy trends continue, projections estimate that 40% of undocumented Latino immigrants will be 55 years or older by 2038-nearly all of whom will have aged in place. Currently, 40% of older Latino undocumented immigrants do not have insurance. Without policies that increase access to insurance, projections estimate that the share who are uninsured among all older Latinos immigrants will rise from 15% to 21%, and the share who is both uninsured and living with a chronic health condition will rise from 5% to 9%.
Without access to health care, older undocumented immigrants may experience delayed care and more severe morbidity. Our projections highlight the need to develop and enact policies that can address impending health access concerns for an increasingly older undocumented Latino population.
本文重点关注年长的无证拉丁裔移民群体，并预测他们当前的人口特征和医疗保险覆盖情况可能如何影响未来的人口规模和医疗保险趋势。
我们以 2013-2018 年美国社区调查为基础，预测未来 20 年 55 岁及以上无证拉丁裔人口的增长情况。我们使用队列成分法估计不同移民情景下的人口规模，并区分原地老龄化和新移民。我们还从 2003-2014 年加利福尼亚健康访谈调查中考察了 55 岁及以上无证拉丁裔老年人的当前医疗保险覆盖情况和慢性健康状况。然后，我们根据不同的移民和政策情景预测 2038 年拉丁裔移民的医疗保险率。
如果当前的死亡率、移民和政策趋势持续下去，预测估计到 2038 年，40%的无证拉丁裔移民将年满 55 岁——其中几乎所有人都将原地老龄化。目前，40%的年长拉丁裔无证移民没有保险。如果没有增加保险覆盖的政策，预测估计所有年长拉丁裔移民中没有保险的比例将从 15%上升到 21%，没有保险且患有慢性健康问题的比例将从 5%上升到 9%。
如果无法获得医疗保健，年长的无证移民可能会延迟治疗并出现更严重的发病。我们的预测强调了制定和实施政策的必要性，以解决日益增多的无证拉丁裔老年人口即将面临的医疗保健获取问题。
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