A nomogram predicting risk for acute compartment syndrome following tibial plateau fractures. Single centre retrospective study.

Background This study aimed at analysing risk factors for development of acute compartment syndrome (ACS) in tibial plateau fractures, and to construct a nomogram predicting ACS-risk. Patients and Methods 243 patients (102 males; mean age: 50.7 [range: 18-85] years) with 253 tibial plateau fractures treated between 2010 and 2019 at a level-1 trauma centre were retrospectively included. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression analysis with odds ratios (OR) were performed to assess variables predicting ACS. Based on the multivariate model, ROC curve, Youden index, and nomogram were constructed. Results ACS developed in 23 patients (9.1%), with risk factors being male gender (OR: 10.606; p<0.001), BMI (OR: 1.084; p = 0.048), polytrauma (OR: 4.085; p = 0.003), and Schatzker type IV-VI fractures (OR: 6.325; p = 0.004). Age, ASA score, diabetes, renal insufficiency, hypertension, smoking or open fracture were not significantly associated with ACS-risk (all p>0.05). In the multivariate analysis, male gender (OR: 7.392; p = 0.002), and Schatzker type IV-VI fractures (OR: 5.533; p = 0.009) remained independent negative ACS-predictors, irrespective of polytrauma (p = 0.081), or BMI (p = 0.194). Area under the ROC curve was 0.840. Youden index revealed a cut-off value of ≥ 18%, upon which patients are at extremely high risk for ACS. Conclusions Particular attention should be paid to male patients with high-energy fractures of the tibial plateau towards any signs of ACS of the affected extremity to initiate early treatment. The compiled nomogram, consisting of four easily quantifiable clinical variables, may be used in clinical practice to individually predict ACS risk. Any risk score ≥ 18% should prompt critical monitoring towards ACS, or even prophylactic fasciotomy during primary surgery.