School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Zhuhai 519082, China.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Zhuhai 519082, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Apr 10;816:151656. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151656. Epub 2021 Nov 15.
The warming magnitudes under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the spatial distribution of global land surface air apparent temperature (APT) since the early of the 20 century were systematically analyzed, based on the comparisons among in-situ observations, extended reanalysis, and the CMIP6 model output. The warming of APT by the mid and late 21st century was then projected, as well as under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C threshold for global warming. The study reveals: 1) the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (MME) agrees well with the observations in terms of the climatological mean and temporal variations for the global land surface air temperature (SAT) and the calculated APT over the past 100 years. 2) Although the spatial gradient distribution of SAT and APT is quite similar under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the warming trend of global surface APT over land is significantly larger than that of SAT. Population living in low latitudes will be more vulnerable to the enhanced warming of APT. 3) Under the global warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, the global mean APT estimated under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 is identical, which are 1.9 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively. The projected APT will increase by 3.9 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 6.7 °C under SSP5-8.5 at the end of the 21st century relative to the pre-industrial. This study highlights that the probability and intensity of extreme warm events for land SAT and APT around the globe under SSP5-8.5 will be remarkably higher than SSP2-4.5 in the 21st century, implying the urgent demand of regulating greenhouse gas emissions toward reducing thermal discomfort in the future.
基于对观测数据、扩展再分析和 CMIP6 模式输出的比较，系统地分析了不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的变暖幅度以及全球陆面空气视气温 (APT) 的空间分布。在此基础上，预估了 21 世纪中叶以后以及在全球变暖 1.5°C 和 2.0°C 阈值下的 APT 变暖情况。研究结果表明：1）CMIP6 多模式集合平均值（MME）在过去 100 年全球陆面气温（SAT）和计算得出的 APT 的气候平均和时间变化方面与观测结果吻合较好。2）尽管在 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 下 SAT 和 APT 的空间梯度分布非常相似，但全球陆面 APT 的变暖趋势明显大于 SAT。生活在低纬度地区的人口将更容易受到 APT 增强变暖的影响。3）在全球变暖 1.5°C 和 2.0°C 的阈值下，根据 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 估算的全球平均 APT 相同，分别为 1.9°C 和 2.7°C。与工业化前相比，在 21 世纪末，SSP2-4.5 下的预估 APT 将增加 3.9°C，SSP5-8.5 下将增加 6.7°C。本研究强调，在 21 世纪，SSP5-8.5 下全球陆面 SAT 和 APT 极端暖事件的发生概率和强度将明显高于 SSP2-4.5，这意味着迫切需要调节温室气体排放，以减少未来的热舒适度问题。
