Kou Jia, Zhang Lu-Lu, Yang Xing-Li, Wen Dan-Wan, Zhou Guan-Qun, Wu Chen-Fei, Xu Si-Si, Zheng Wei-Hong, Qi Zhen-Yu, Sun Ying, Lin Li
Department of Radiation Oncology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Guangzhou 510060, China.
Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Guangzhou 510060, China.
J Pers Med. 2021 Oct 22;11(11):1065. doi: 10.3390/jpm11111065.
() Purpose: This study aims to explore risk-adapted treatment for elderly patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC) according to their pretreatment risk stratification and the degree of comorbidity. () Methods: A total of 583 elderly LA-NPC patients diagnosed from January 2011 to January 2018 are retrospectively studied. A nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) is constructed based on multivariate Cox regression analysis. The performance of the model is evaluated by using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve and Harrell concordance index (C-index). Then, the entire cohort is divided into different risk groups according to the nomogram cutoff value determined by X-tile analysis. The degree of comorbidities is assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Finally, survival rates are estimated and compared by the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. () Results: A nomogram for DFS is constructed with T/N classification, Epstein-Barr virus DNA and albumin. The nomogram shows well prognostic performance and significantly outperformed the tumor-node-metastasis staging system for estimating DFS (AUC, 0.710 vs. 0.607; C-index, 0.668 vs. 0.585; both < 0.001). The high-risk group generated by nomogram has significantly poorer survival compared with the low-risk group (3-year DFS, 76.7% vs. 44.6%, < 0.001). For high-risk patients with fewer comorbidities (CCI = 2), chemotherapy combined with radiotherapy is associated with significantly better survival ( < 0.05) than radiotherapy alone. () Conclusion: A prognostic nomogram for DFS is constructed with generating two risk groups. Combining risk stratification and the degree of comorbidities can guide risk-adapted treatment for elderly LA-NPC patients.
()目的:本研究旨在根据老年局部区域晚期鼻咽癌(LA-NPC)患者的治疗前风险分层和合并症程度,探索风险适应性治疗方案。()方法:回顾性研究2011年1月至2018年1月期间诊断的583例老年LA-NPC患者。基于多变量Cox回归分析构建无病生存(DFS)列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)和Harrell一致性指数(C指数)评估模型性能。然后,根据X-tile分析确定的列线图临界值将整个队列分为不同风险组。采用Charlson合并症指数(CCI)评估合并症程度。最后,通过Kaplan-Meier法和对数秩检验估计并比较生存率。()结果:构建了包含T/N分类、Epstein-Barr病毒DNA和白蛋白的DFS列线图。该列线图显示出良好的预后性能,在估计DFS方面显著优于肿瘤-淋巴结-转移分期系统(AUC,0.710对0.607;C指数,0.668对0.585;均P<0.001)。列线图产生的高危组生存率明显低于低危组(3年DFS,76.7%对44.6%,P<0.001)。对于合并症较少(CCI=2)的高危患者,化疗联合放疗的生存率显著高于单纯放疗(P<0.05)。()结论:构建了一个产生两个风险组的DFS预后列线图。结合风险分层和合并症程度可为老年LA-NPC患者的风险适应性治疗提供指导。