Bayesian estimation of prevalence of Johne's disease in dairy herds in Southern Italy.

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic granulomatous disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) causing important losses on dairy farms. In Italy, voluntary programs to control MAP infection in dairy cattle are implemented in the Northern part of the country, where several studies have been carried out. Conversely, the disease status has not been fully investigated in the Southern regions. The aims of this study were to (i) determine the herd-level true prevalence (HTP) and (ii) the conditional within herd animal-level prevalence (CWHP) of JD in selected dairy cattle herds in Southern Italy. Serum samples were taken from 27 farms and analysed using a commercial ELISA test. A Bayesian model was fitted to the data. The estimated posterior mean of HPT was 0.46 (89 % CI 0.25-0.67), while the mean CWHP was 0.03 (89 % CI: 0.012-0.045). The results presented in this study call for designing and implementing an effective JD control program at national level.