Kennedy Inst Ethics J. 2021;31(4):405-428. doi: 10.1353/ken.2021.0028.
Were governments justified in imposing lockdowns to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic? We argue that a convincing answer to this question is to date wanting, by critically analyzing the factual basis of a recent paper, "How Government Leaders Violated Their Epistemic Duties During the SARS-CoV-2 Crisis" (Winsberg, Brennan, and Suprenant 2020). In their paper, Winsberg, Brennan, and Suprenant argue that government leaders did not, at the beginning of the pandemic, meet the epistemic requirements necessitated to impose lockdowns. We focus on Winsberg, Brennan, and Suprenant's contentions that knowledge about COVID-19 resultant projections were inadequate; that epidemiologists were biased in their estimates of relevant figures; that there was insufficient evidence supporting the efficacy of lockdowns; and that lockdowns cause more harm than good. We argue that none of these claims are sufficiently supported by evidence, thus impairing their case against lockdowns, and leaving open the question of whether lockdowns were justified.
政府实施封锁以控制 COVID-19 大流行的传播是否合理?我们认为,通过批判性地分析最近一篇论文“政府领导人在 SARS-CoV-2 危机期间如何违反他们的认知职责”(Winsberg、Brennan 和 Suprenant 2020)的事实基础,到目前为止,这个问题还没有令人信服的答案。在他们的论文中,Winsberg、Brennan 和 Suprenant 认为,政府领导人在大流行开始时没有满足实施封锁所必需的认知要求。我们专注于 Winsberg、Brennan 和 Suprenant 的论点,即关于 COVID-19 预测的知识不充分;流行病学家在估计相关数字时存在偏见;没有足够的证据支持封锁的有效性;而且封锁弊大于利。我们认为,这些说法都没有得到充分的证据支持,从而削弱了他们对封锁的反对意见,并使封锁是否合理的问题悬而未决。