Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Program, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611-6580, USA.
Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 1;12(1):3403. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07010-z.
Coastal flood hazards and damage to coastal communities are increasing steeply and nonlinearly due to the compound impact of intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) and accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). We expand the probabilistic coastal flood hazard analysis framework to facilitate coastal adaptation by simulating the compound impact of predicted intensifying TCs and rising sea levels in the twenty-first century. We compared the characteristics of landfalling TCs in Florida (FL) and southwest Florida (SWFL) for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries predicted by several climate models and downscaling models. TCs predicted by four climate models, one without downscaling and three with downscaling, were used by a coupled surge-wave model to predict the future flood hazard due to compound effects of TCs and SLR over a large SWFL coastal flood plain. By 2100, the coastal inundation metrics of the 1% annual chance coastal flood could become almost 3-7 folds of their current values, depending on the climate and downscaling models, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation phases, TCs, SLR, precipitation, and how TCs and SLR are incorporated. By 2100, the current 1% (100-year) inundation event could become a 3-year event, and the 0.2% (500-year) inundation event could become a 5-year event.
由于热带气旋（TC）加剧和海平面上升（SLR）的复合影响，沿海洪灾危害和沿海社区的破坏正急剧而非线性地增加。我们扩展了概率沿海洪灾风险分析框架，通过模拟二十一世纪预测的加剧 TC 和海平面上升的复合影响，为沿海适应提供便利。我们比较了几个气候模型和降尺度模型预测的二十世纪末和二十一世纪佛罗里达州（FL）和佛罗里达州西南部（SWFL）登陆 TC 的特征。使用耦合海啸波模型，根据四个气候模型中的四个预测 TC，其中一个没有降尺度，三个有降尺度，预测未来由于 TC 和 SLR 的复合影响而导致的沿海洪灾风险。到 2100 年，1%年际沿海洪灾的沿海淹没指标可能是当前值的近 3-7 倍，具体取决于气候和降尺度模型、代表性浓度路径情景、大西洋多年代际震荡阶段、TC、SLR、降水以及如何合并 TC 和 SLR。到 2100 年，当前的 1%（100 年）淹没事件可能变为 3 年事件，而 0.2%（500 年）淹没事件可能变为 5 年事件。
