Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, United States of America.
Vishwamitra Research Institute, Crystal Lake, IL, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 May 17;17(5):e0267403. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267403. eCollection 2022.
Over the years, several global models have been proposed to forecast global sustainability, provide a framework for sustainable policy-making, or to study sustainability across the FEW nexus. An integrated model is presented here with components like food-web ecosystem dynamics, microeconomics components, including energy producers and industries, and various socio-techno-economic policy dimensions. The model consists of 15 compartments representing a simplified ecological food-web set in a macroeconomic framework along with a rudimentary legal system. The food-web is modeled by Lotka-Volterra type expressions, whereas the economy is represented by a price-setting model wherein firms and human households attempt to maximize their economic well-being. The model development is done using global-scale data for stocks and flows of food, energy, and water, which were used to parameterize this model. Appropriate proportions for some of the ecological compartments like herbivores and carnivores are used to model those compartments. The modeling of the human compartment was carried out using historical data for the global mortality rate. Historical data were used to parameterize the model. Data for key variables like the human population, GDP growth, greenhouse gases like CO2 and NOX emissions were used to validate the model. The model was then used to make long-term forecasts and to study global sustainability over an extended time. The purpose of this study was to create a global model which can provide techno-socio-economic policy solutions for global sustainability. Further, scenario analysis was conducted for cases where the human population or human consumption increases rapidly to observe the impact on the sustainability of the planet over the next century. The results indicated that the planet can support increased population if the per capita consumption levels do not rise. However, increased consumption resulted in exhaustion of natural resources and increased the CO2 emissions by a multiple of 100.
多年来，已经提出了几种全球模型来预测全球可持续性，为可持续政策制定提供框架，或研究 FEW 关系中的可持续性。本文提出了一个综合模型，其中包括食物网生态系统动态、微观经济学组件，包括能源生产者和产业，以及各种社会技术经济政策维度。该模型由 15 个隔室组成，代表简化的生态食物网，置于宏观经济框架内，并带有基本的法律体系。食物网通过洛特卡-沃尔泰拉类型的表达式进行建模，而经济则由一个定价模型表示，其中企业和家庭试图最大化其经济福利。模型的开发使用了全球规模的食物、能源和水的存量和流量数据，这些数据被用于参数化该模型。对于一些生态隔室，如食草动物和肉食动物，使用适当的比例来对这些隔室进行建模。人类隔室的建模使用了全球死亡率的历史数据。历史数据被用于参数化模型。关键变量（如人口、GDP 增长、温室气体如 CO2 和 NOX 排放）的数据用于验证模型。然后使用该模型进行长期预测，并在较长时间内研究全球可持续性。本研究的目的是创建一个可以为全球可持续性提供技术社会经济政策解决方案的全球模型。此外，还进行了情景分析，针对人口或人类消费迅速增长的情况，观察未来一个世纪对地球可持续性的影响。结果表明，如果人均消费水平不上升，那么地球可以支持人口增长。然而，消费的增加导致自然资源枯竭，并使 CO2 排放量增加了 100 多倍。
