Estimating the effects of driving forces on ecosystem services and their responses to environmental conditions.

Understanding the factors driving ecosystem service (ES) change is essential for maintaining ES functions and achieving sustainable development. Although research on the spatial variations in the effects of driving forces on ESs provides guidance for regional ecological management, the responses of driving forces to environmental conditions have not been adequately investigated, especially in regions with high spatial heterogeneity. By using remote sensing images and socioeconomic data, this paper aims to fill this gap by estimating the spatial distribution characteristics of the effects of driving forces on ESs and their responses to different environmental conditions in Sichuan Province, China. First, the biophysical values of soil conservation (SC) and water yield (WY) were evaluated using ecological simulation models. Second, the spatial distribution of the effects of four driving forces on two services was explored using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Finally, the responses of driving forces to environmental conditions were quantified by using scatter plots. The results revealed that the spatial patterns of SC and WY showed spatial heterogeneity. The effects of driving forces on ESs varied with space. Both positive and negative effects of driving forces were observed in Sichuan Province. Under different biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, the effects of driving forces on ESs showed different change trends, characterized by fluctuating trends and obvious thresholds. In our study area, urban sprawl, impervious surfaces, agricultural expansion, intensive human activities, and complex topographic features contributed to the variations in the effects of driving forces. Our results suggest that the responses of driving forces to different land-use coverage, topographical, NDVI, and socioeconomic conditions should be considered in ecological decision-making. Such research results are expected to manage the driving forces of ESs and serve as a practical reference for local management in order to maintain the functions of ESs and attain sustainable development.