School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Lancet Planet Health. 2022 Jun;6(6):e484-e495. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00117-6.
BACKGROUND: Heat exposure is an important but underappreciated risk factor contributing to cardiovascular disease. Warming temperatures might therefore pose substantial challenges to population health, especially in a rapidly aging population. To address a potential increase in the burden of cardiovascular disease, a better understanding of the effects of ambient heat on different types of cardiovascular disease and factors contributing to vulnerability is required, especially in the context of climate change. This study reviews the current epidemiological evidence linking heat exposures (both high temperatures and heatwaves) with cardiovascular disease outcomes, including mortality and morbidity. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for literature published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 10, 2022, and evaluated the quality of the evidence following the Navigation Guide Criteria. We included original research on independent study populations in which the exposure metric was high temperatures or heatwaves, and observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Reviews, commentaries, grey literature, and studies that examined only seasonal effects without explicitly considering temperature were excluded. The risk estimates were derived from included articles and if insufficient data were available we contacted the authors to provide clarification. We did a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the relative risk (RR) of the association between high temperatures and heatwaves and cardiovascular disease outcomes. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021232601). FINDINGS: In total, 7360 results were returned from our search of which we included 282 articles in the systematic review, and of which 266 were eligible for the meta-analysis. There was substantial heterogeneity for both mortality (high temperatures: I=93·6%, p<0·0001; heatwaves: I=98·9%, p<0·0001) and morbidity (high temperatures: I=98·8%, p<0·0001; heatwaves: I=83·5%, p<0·0001). Despite the heterogeneity in environmental conditions and population dynamics among the reviewed studies, results showed that a 1°C increase in temperature was positively associated with cardiovascular disease-related mortality across all considered diagnoses. The overall risk of cardiovascular disease-related mortality increased by 2·1% (RR 1·021 [95%CI 1·020-1·023]), with the highest specific disease risk being for stroke and coronary heart disease. A 1°C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity due to arrhythmias and cardiac arrest and coronary heart disease. Our findings suggest heat exposure leads to elevated risk of morbidity and mortality for women, people 65 years and older, individuals living in tropical climates, and those in countries of lower-middle income. Heatwaves were also significantly associated with a 17% increase in risk of mortality (RR 1·117 [95% CI 1·093-1·141]), and increasing heatwave intensity with an increasing risk (RR 1·067 [95% CI 1·056-1·078] for low intensity, 1·088 [1·058-1·119] for middle intensity, and 1·189 [1·109-1·269] for high intensity settings). INTERPRETATION: This review strengthens the evidence on the increase in cardiovascular disease risk due to ambient heat exposures in different climate zones. The widespread prevalence of exposure to hot temperatures, in conjunction with an increase in the proportion of older people in the population, might result in a rise in poor cardiovascular disease health outcomes associated with a warming climate. Evidence-based prevention measures are needed to attenuate peaks in cardiovascular events during hot spells, thereby lowering the worldwide total heat-related burden of cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and death. FUNDING: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
背景:热暴露是导致心血管疾病的一个重要但被低估的风险因素。因此,升温可能会给人口健康带来巨大挑战,尤其是在人口迅速老龄化的情况下。为了应对心血管疾病负担增加的潜在风险,需要更好地了解环境热对不同类型心血管疾病的影响以及导致脆弱性的因素,特别是在气候变化的背景下。本研究综述了目前将热暴露(高温和热浪)与心血管疾病结局(包括死亡率和发病率)联系起来的流行病学证据。
方法:在这项系统回顾和荟萃分析中,我们检索了 PubMed、Embase 和 Scopus 数据库,以获取 1990 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 3 月 10 日期间发表的文献,并根据导航指南标准评估证据质量。我们纳入了独立研究人群的原始研究,暴露指标为高温或热浪,以及使用生态时间序列、病例交叉或病例系列研究设计的观察性研究,这些研究比较了不同暴露或时间段的风险。综述、评论、灰色文献以及仅研究季节性影响而未明确考虑温度的研究被排除在外。风险估计值来自纳入的文章,如果可用数据不足,我们会联系作者以澄清。我们进行了随机效应荟萃分析,以汇总高温和热浪与心血管疾病结局之间关联的相对风险(RR)。研究方案在 PROSPERO(CRD42021232601)中注册。
结果:我们的搜索共返回了 7360 个结果,其中包括 282 篇系统综述文章,266 篇文章符合荟萃分析的条件。死亡率(高温:I=93.6%,p<0.0001;热浪:I=98.9%,p<0.0001)和发病率(高温:I=98.8%,p<0.0001;热浪:I=83.5%,p<0.0001)都存在很大的异质性。尽管综述研究中的环境条件和人口动态存在差异,但结果表明,在所有考虑的诊断中,温度升高 1°C 与心血管疾病相关死亡率呈正相关。心血管疾病相关死亡率的总体风险增加了 2.1%(RR 1.021[95%CI 1.020-1.023]),特定疾病风险最高的是中风和冠心病。温度升高 1°C 还与心律失常和心脏骤停以及冠心病发病率显著增加相关。我们的研究结果表明,热暴露会导致女性、65 岁及以上的人、生活在热带气候地区的人和中低收入国家的人发病率和死亡率升高。热浪也与死亡率增加 17%显著相关(RR 1.117[95%CI 1.093-1.141]),随着热浪强度的增加,风险也会增加(RR 1.067[95%CI 1.056-1.078]为低强度,1.088[1.058-1.119]为中强度,1.189[1.109-1.269]为高强度设置)。
解释:本综述加强了有关不同气候带环境热暴露导致心血管疾病风险增加的证据。由于热温度的广泛流行,再加上人口中老年人比例的增加,可能会导致与气候变暖相关的心血管疾病不良健康结局增加。需要采取循证预防措施,以减轻热天期间心血管事件的高峰,从而降低全球与心血管疾病相关的发病率和死亡率的总热相关负担。
资金:澳大利亚研究理事会发现计划。
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