International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
Centre for Remote Sensing Applications (CRSA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Dec;29(56):84844-84860. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21671-3. Epub 2022 Jul 5.
The influence of growing season rainfall on agricultural production is indisputable. In Morocco, the production of crops such as barley, maize, and wheat is impacted by growing season rainfall. Due to persistent gaps in growing season rainfall and other drivers of crop yield, crops have experienced observed yields that are often below projected or potential yields. However, there are currently no studies that have quantified these gaps in yield and growing season rainfall in Morocco. To achieve this objective, time-series crop yield for all three crops and growing season rainfall data for the period 1991-2020 were collected from FAOSTAT and the World Bank climate portal, respectively. Growing season rainfall and crop yield data for the spatial variations were culled from System National de Suivi Agrometeorologique (GCMS) and the yield gaps atlas, respectively, for the same historical period. The data were subjected to bias correction to handle uncertainty. The projected/simulated crop yields and growing season rainfall were computed by regression analysis. Crop yield and growing season rainfall gaps were determined by establishing the difference between the projected and observed crop yields and rainfall data. The results show that observed and simulated wheat have a stronger relationship when compared to the other crops. Also, most years with crop yield gaps are associated with growing season rainfall gaps. Wheat records the lowest number of years with yield gaps and the highest number of years with growing season rainfall gaps during the entire data series. Therefore, even though yield gaps are strongly tied to growing season rainfall gaps, it is not the case for wheat, and therefore other drivers might be important because wheat has the lowest number of years with crop yield gaps and the highest number of years with growing season rainfall gaps. Spatially, yield and growing season rainfall gaps decline with increased latitude. The broader perspective and policy implication here is that a better understanding of yield and growing season rainfall gaps mandates an understanding of growing season rainfall and other drivers of yield. As a way forward, potential research should focus on identifying the drivers of yield gaps, sub-national experimentation at the plot level as well as on closing yield gaps through water and nutrient management.
生长季节降雨对农业生产的影响是不可否认的。在摩洛哥，大麦、玉米和小麦等作物的生产受到生长季节降雨的影响。由于生长季节降雨和其他作物产量驱动因素的持续差距，作物的实际产量往往低于预期或潜在产量。然而，目前还没有研究量化摩洛哥的这些产量差距和生长季节降雨差距。为了实现这一目标，分别从 FAOSTAT 和世界银行气候门户收集了 1991-2020 年期间所有三种作物的时间序列作物产量和生长季节降雨数据。从 System National de Suivi Agrometeorologique (GCMS) 和产量差距地图集分别收集了空间变化的生长季节降雨和作物产量数据，用于相同的历史时期。对数据进行了偏差校正以处理不确定性。通过回归分析计算了预测/模拟的作物产量和生长季节降雨。通过建立预测和观测作物产量和降雨数据之间的差异来确定作物产量和生长季节降雨差距。结果表明，与其他作物相比，观测到的和模拟的小麦具有更强的关系。此外，大多数出现作物产量差距的年份都与生长季节降雨差距有关。在整个数据系列中，小麦记录了产量差距年份最少和生长季节降雨差距年份最多的年份。因此，尽管产量差距与生长季节降雨差距密切相关，但对于小麦来说并非如此，因此其他驱动因素可能很重要，因为小麦的产量差距年份最少，生长季节降雨差距年份最多。从空间上看，产量和生长季节降雨差距随纬度的增加而减小。这里更广泛的视角和政策意义是，要更好地理解产量和生长季节降雨差距，就必须了解生长季节降雨和其他产量驱动因素。作为前进的方向，潜在的研究应该集中在确定产量差距的驱动因素上，在国家级以下的地块水平进行实验，以及通过水和养分管理来缩小产量差距。
