Padma Kanya Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Amrit Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Jun 10;19(8):8554-8579. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022397.
Measles is one of the highly contagious human viral diseases. Despite the availability of vaccines, measles outbreak frequently occurs in many places, including Nepal, partly due to the lack of compliance with vaccination. In this study, we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to evaluate the effects of monitored vaccination programs to control and eliminate measles. We use our model, parameterized with the data from the measles outbreak in Nepal, to calculate the vaccinated reproduction number, $ R_v $, of measles in Nepal. We perform model analyses to establish the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point for $ R_v < 1 $ and the uniform persistence of the disease for $ R_v > 1 $. Moreover, we perform model simulations to identify monitored vaccination strategies for the successful control of measles in Nepal. Our model predicts that the monitored vaccination programs can help control the potential resurgence of the disease.
麻疹是一种高度传染性的人类病毒性疾病。尽管有疫苗可用，但麻疹疫情仍频繁在许多地方发生，包括尼泊尔，部分原因是疫苗接种率不足。在这项研究中，我们开发了一种新的传播动力学模型，以评估监测疫苗接种计划对控制和消除麻疹的效果。我们使用从尼泊尔麻疹疫情中获得的数据对模型进行参数化，以计算尼泊尔麻疹的接种繁殖数$R_v$。我们进行模型分析，以建立$R_v<1$时无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性和$R_v>1$时疾病的一致持久性。此外，我们进行模型模拟，以确定监测疫苗接种策略，以成功控制尼泊尔的麻疹。我们的模型预测，监测疫苗接种计划有助于控制疾病的潜在复发。
