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预测捕食螨加州新小绥螨（McGregor）在中国的潜在分布范围在当前和未来气候情景下。

Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios.

机构信息

College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan, China.

Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Centre, Chengdu, 610072, Sichuan, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 12;12(1):11807. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1
PMID:35821252
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9276784/
Abstract

Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97-23.27 °C, 71.36-3924.8 mm, and 41.94-585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 10 km in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes.

摘要

加州新小绥螨是一种分布广泛的捕食性螨，能够有效控制多种害螨。本研究利用 MaxEnt 模型分析了加州新小绥螨在中国的潜在分布，并采用 BCC-CSM2-MR 模型预测了在 SSP126、SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下，2021 年至 2100 年期间，该螨适宜生境的变化。结果表明：（1）模型的曲线下面积平均值均大于 0.95，表明模型具有较好的精度。（2）年平均气温（Bio1）、最冷月降水量（Bio19）和最旱月降水量（Bio17）是影响和控制加州新小绥螨潜在分布的主要气候变量，其适宜范围分别为 6.97-23.27°C、71.36-3924.8mm 和 41.94-585.08mm。（3）加州新小绥螨的适宜生境主要分布在中国的南部地区，目前的总适宜生境面积为 226.22×10^4km^2。在未来气候情景下，与当前情景相比，加州新小绥螨的低适宜和中适宜生境面积增加，而高适宜生境面积减少。因此，可能需要培育耐高温的加州新小绥螨品系，以适应未来的环境变化。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/16b878b168ad/41598_2022_15308_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/3ed26dfface6/41598_2022_15308_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/83473700fc3f/41598_2022_15308_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/16b878b168ad/41598_2022_15308_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/3ed26dfface6/41598_2022_15308_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/f2d23085508c/41598_2022_15308_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/84748658b8a3/41598_2022_15308_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/5758b1575b73/41598_2022_15308_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/e7f513ba1ff0/41598_2022_15308_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/4e17fe1a5eec/41598_2022_15308_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/34f6a7f3b1ac/41598_2022_15308_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/ee1c9e38b299/41598_2022_15308_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/83473700fc3f/41598_2022_15308_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba3b/9276784/16b878b168ad/41598_2022_15308_Fig10_HTML.jpg

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