Matos-Moreno Amílcar, Santos-Lozada Alexis R, Mehta Neil, de Leon Carlos F Mendes, Lê-Scherban Félice, De Lima Friche Amélia A
Department of Epidemiology and Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University. University Park, PA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2022 Jun;41(3):801-810. doi: 10.1007/s11113-021-09683-2. Epub 2021 Oct 30.
The combined effects of declining fertility and increased longevity have accelerated population aging in different parts of the world. Unlike other countries, Puerto Rico is also experiencing unprecedented levels of working-age out-migration. The full impact of high out-migration on Puerto Rican demography is not fully understood. Placing Puerto Rico's aging process in an international context is useful in identifying the role out-migration is having on the accelerated aging of the Puerto Rican society. Using the World Population Prospects 2019 estimates, we compared the pattern of rapid aging found for Puerto Rico with the trajectories of six other countries with the highest population of 65+ in the World, Europe, and the Caribbean from 1960 to 2020. Prior to 2010, the aging process in Puerto Rico was comparable to the other countries. After 2010, the percent of the population over 65 years in Puerto Rico nearly doubled from 11% to 21%. The nearly doubling of the percent of older adults is not observed in any of the comparison countries. We find that the rapid aging of Puerto Rico, changing from a linear trend to an exponential one, is a result of accelerating levels of out-migration, which is concentrated in the working-age population.
生育率下降和寿命延长的综合影响加速了世界不同地区的人口老龄化。与其他国家不同，波多黎各还经历着工作年龄人口前所未有的外流。高外流率对波多黎各人口统计学的全面影响尚未完全了解。将波多黎各的老龄化进程置于国际背景下，有助于确定外流对波多黎各社会加速老龄化所起的作用。利用《2019年世界人口展望》的估计数据，我们将波多黎各快速老龄化的模式与世界、欧洲和加勒比地区另外六个65岁及以上人口最多的国家从1960年到2020年的发展轨迹进行了比较。2010年之前，波多黎各的老龄化进程与其他国家相当。2010年之后，波多黎各65岁以上人口的比例几乎翻了一番，从11%升至21%。在任何一个对比国家中，老年人口比例都没有出现近一倍的增长。我们发现，波多黎各从线性趋势转变为指数趋势的快速老龄化，是外流加速的结果，外流集中在工作年龄人口中。
