Will climate change affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species? Predictions based on Bulwer's petrel populations in the NE Atlantic Ocean.

Climate change has repeatedly been shown to impact the demography and survival of marine top predators. However, most evidence comes from single populations of widely distributed species, limited mainly to polar and subpolar environments. Here, we aimed to evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on the survival of a tropical and migratory seabird over the course of its annual cycle. We used capture-mark-recapture data from three populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) spread across the NE Atlantic Ocean, from the Azores, Canary, and Cabo Verde Islands (including temperate to tropical zones). We also inferred how the survival of this seabird might be affected under different climatic scenarios, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the environmental variables whose effect we evaluated (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Southern Oscillation Index, Sea Surface Temperature [SST] and wind speed), SST estimated for the breeding area and season was the variable with the greatest influence on adult survival. Negative effects of SST increase emerged across the three populations, most likely through indirect trophic web interactions. Unfortunately, our study also shows that the survival of Bulwer's petrel will be profoundly affected by the different scenarios of climate change, even with the most optimistic trajectory involving the lowest greenhouse gas emission. Furthermore, for the first time, our study predicts stronger impacts of climate change on tropical populations than on subtropical and temperate ones. This result highlights the devastating effect that climate change may also have on tropical areas, and the importance of considering multi-population approaches when evaluating its impacts which may differ across species distributions.