Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary T2N 2T9, Canada.
Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1G1, Canada.
J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2023 Feb 15;108(3):745-754. doi: 10.1210/clinem/dgac582.
CONTEXT: FRAX® estimates 10-year fracture probability from osteoporosis-specific risk factors. Medical comorbidity indicators are associated with fracture risk but whether these are independent from those in FRAX is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized Johns Hopkins Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG®) score or recent hospitalization number may be independently associated with increased risk for fractures. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included women and men age ≥ 40 in the Manitoba BMD Registry (1996-2016) with at least 3 years prior health care data and used linked administrative databases to construct ADG scores along with number of hospitalizations for each individual. Incident Major Osteoporotic Fracture and Hip Fracture was ascertained during average follow-up of 9 years; Cox regression analysis determined the association between increasing ADG score or number of hospitalizations and fractures. RESULTS: Separately, hospitalizations and ADG score independently increased the hazard ratio for fracture at all levels of comorbidity (hazard range 1.2-1.8, all P < 0.05), irrespective of adjustment for FRAX, BMD, and competing mortality. Taken together, there was still a higher than predicted rate of fracture at all levels of increased comorbidity, independent of FRAX and BMD but attenuated by competing mortality. Using an intervention threshold of major fracture risk >20%, application of the comorbidity hazard ratio multiplier to the patient population FRAX scores would increase the number of treatment candidates from 8.6% to 14.4%. CONCLUSION: Both complex and simple measures of medical comorbidity may be used to modify FRAX-based risk estimates to capture the increased fracture risk associated with multiple comorbid conditions in older patients.
背景:FRAX® 基于骨质疏松相关风险因素来估算 10 年骨折概率。医疗合并症指标与骨折风险相关,但这些指标是否独立于 FRAX 尚不确定。
目的:我们假设约翰霍普金斯综合诊断组(ADG®)评分或近期住院人数可能与骨折风险增加独立相关。
方法:本回顾性队列研究纳入了马尼托巴省 BMD 登记处(1996-2016 年)中年龄≥40 岁的女性和男性,他们至少有 3 年的前期医疗保健数据,并使用关联的行政数据库为每个个体构建 ADG 评分以及住院次数。在平均 9 年的随访期间确定了主要骨质疏松性骨折和髋部骨折的发病情况;Cox 回归分析确定了 ADG 评分或住院次数增加与骨折之间的关联。
结果:单独来看,住院和 ADG 评分独立增加了所有合并症水平的骨折风险比(风险范围为 1.2-1.8,均 P < 0.05),无论是否调整了 FRAX、BMD 和竞争死亡率。综合来看,在所有增加合并症水平下,骨折的预测率仍然高于预期,独立于 FRAX 和 BMD,但受到竞争死亡率的影响而减弱。使用主要骨折风险>20%的干预阈值,将合并症风险比乘数应用于患者人群的 FRAX 评分,将使治疗候选人数从 8.6%增加到 14.4%。
结论:复杂和简单的医疗合并症指标都可以用于修改基于 FRAX 的风险估计,以捕捉与老年患者多种合并症相关的增加骨折风险。
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