College of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 22;19(19):12018. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191912018.
Aba's topography, weather, and climate make it prone to landslides, mudslides, and other natural disasters, which limit economic and social growth. Assessing and improving regional resilience is important to mitigate natural disasters and achieve sustainable development. In this paper, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the resilience of Aba under multi-hazard stress from 2010 to 2018 by combining the existing framework with the disaster resilience of the place (DROP) model. Then spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed based on the coefficient of variation and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). Finally, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used to identify the key influences on disaster resilience. The results show that (1) the disaster resilience in Aba increased from 2010 to 2018 but dropped in 2013 and 2017 due to large-scale disasters. (2) There are temporal and spatial differences in the level of development in each of the Aba counties. From 2010 to 2016, disaster resilience shows a significant positive spatial association and high-high (HH) aggregation in the east and low-low (LL) aggregation in the west. Then the spatial aggregation weakened after 2017. This paper proposes integrating regional development, strengthening the development level building, and emphasizing disaster management for Aba.
阿坝州的地形、天气和气候使其容易发生滑坡、泥石流等自然灾害，限制了经济和社会的发展。评估和提高区域韧性对于减轻自然灾害和实现可持续发展非常重要。本文结合现有框架和地方灾害韧性（DROP）模型，采用熵权法，对 2010 年至 2018 年阿坝州在多灾害压力下的韧性进行了计算，并基于变异系数和探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）进行了时空特征分析。最后，采用偏最小二乘（PLS）回归方法识别了对灾害韧性的关键影响因素。结果表明：（1）2010 年至 2018 年阿坝州的灾害韧性呈上升趋势，但 2013 年和 2017 年由于大规模灾害而有所下降；（2）阿坝州各县的发展水平存在时间和空间差异。2010 年至 2016 年，灾害韧性呈现出显著的正空间关联，东部呈高高（HH）聚集，西部呈低低（LL）聚集。2017 年后，空间聚集性减弱。本文提出了整合区域发展、加强发展水平建设和强调灾害管理的建议，以促进阿坝州的发展。
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