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基于 BP 神经网络的财务预警模型的构建与应用。

Construction and Application of the Financial Early-Warning Model Based on the BP Neural Network.

机构信息

Applied Technology College, Soochow University, Suzhou 215325, Jiangsu Province, China.

Business College, Soochow University, Suzhou 215021, Jiangsu Province, China.

出版信息

Comput Intell Neurosci. 2022 Oct 13;2022:5108677. doi: 10.1155/2022/5108677. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

In order to further improve the early-warning effect of enterprise financial crisis management and reduce the occurrence of enterprise financial crisis, by taking listed companies as examples and combining the operating conditions of listed companies, a financial crisis early-warning indicator system was built from five aspects of profitability, debt-paying ability, development ability, operation ability, and cash flow ability. In addition, a financial management early-warning model based on the BP neural network algorithm was built. Through the experimental prediction, it is showed that the financial crisis early-warning model of listed companies based on the BP neural network algorithm for crisis prediction accuracy was more than 75%. The accuracy of the first three years of model prediction was 93.33% and 72.34%, respectively. The accuracy of model prediction in the first two years was 94.67% and 82.98%, respectively. In the first year, the accuracy rate increased to 100% and 89.36%. Compared with the prediction accuracy of the logistic model (50%), it is fully reflected that the financial early-warning model proposed in the research had a good crisis prediction ability.

摘要

为了进一步提高企业财务管理危机的预警效果,降低企业财务危机的发生,本文以上市公司为例,结合上市公司的经营状况,从盈利能力、偿债能力、发展能力、营运能力和现金流量能力五个方面构建了财务危机预警指标体系。此外,构建了基于 BP 神经网络算法的财务管理预警模型。通过实验预测,表明基于 BP 神经网络算法的上市公司财务危机预警模型对危机预测的准确率超过 75%。模型对前三年的预测准确率分别为 93.33%和 72.34%。模型对前两年的预测准确率分别为 94.67%和 82.98%。在第一年,准确率提高到 100%和 89.36%。与逻辑模型(50%)的预测准确率相比,充分体现了研究中提出的财务预警模型具有良好的危机预测能力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/85c6/9584702/113b67aabbbb/CIN2022-5108677.001.jpg

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