Department of Geoengineering and Water Management, Faculty of Environmental and Power Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Cracow, Poland.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 28;19(21):14095. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192114095.
Poland has relatively small water resources compared to other European countries. Droughts are a characteristic feature of the Polish climate; however, recent years have been particularly warm, causing longer and more severe droughts, including streamflow droughts. The most unfavourable streamflow droughts, considering the economic or social (including health-related) consequences, are the longest and/or the ones with the largest volumes. Such prolonged and severe droughts may constitute a natural disaster threatening public health. The main aim of this article was to define the spatial variability of the annual maximum streamflow drought in the Polish Carpathians and the risk of the maximum streamflow drought of a duration and volume exceeding the given value occurring in this region. This was conducted based on a 30-year time series of daily flows in selected gauging cross sections on rivers in the Polish Carpathians. One- and-two-dimensional probability distributions (utilising a copula function) of the two most important maximum streamflow drought characteristics were identified, specifically duration and volume, which, in consequence, led to identifying the maximum streamflow droughts of a given return period (a given risk level). Maps of maximum streamflow drought hazard were developed and understood as spatial distributions of the maximum streamflow drought frequency of duration and volume exceeding the annual given values. Analysis of the maps allowed for the selection of areas/basins being more or less at risk of extreme annual streamflow drought of a duration and/or volume exceeding the given value.
与其他欧洲国家相比，波兰的水资源相对较少。干旱是波兰气候的一个特征；然而，近年来气候异常温暖，导致干旱时间更长、更严重，包括河流流量干旱。考虑到经济或社会（包括与健康相关）后果，最不利的河流流量干旱是持续时间最长和/或水量最大的干旱。这种持续时间长且严重的干旱可能构成威胁公众健康的自然灾害。本文的主要目的是定义波兰喀尔巴阡山脉年最大河流流量干旱的空间变异性，以及该地区发生持续时间和体积超过给定值的最大河流流量干旱的风险。这是基于在波兰喀尔巴阡山脉选定的河流测量断面的 30 年逐日流量时间序列进行的。确定了两个最重要的最大河流流量干旱特征（持续时间和体积）的一维和二维概率分布（利用 Copula 函数），这导致确定了具有给定重现期（给定风险水平）的最大河流流量干旱。开发了最大河流流量干旱危害图，并将其理解为持续时间和体积超过给定年值的最大河流流量干旱频率的空间分布。对地图的分析允许选择更或更少处于持续时间和/或体积超过给定值的极端年河流流量干旱风险的区域/流域。
