Departamento de Ciência da Computação, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG 30123-970, Brazil.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Chaos. 2022 Nov;32(11):113118. doi: 10.1063/5.0118706.
The ultimate purpose of the statistical analysis of ordinal patterns is to characterize the distribution of the features they induce. In particular, knowing the joint distribution of the pair entropy-statistical complexity for a large class of time series models would allow statistical tests that are unavailable to date. Working in this direction, we characterize the asymptotic distribution of the empirical Shannon's entropy for any model under which the true normalized entropy is neither zero nor one. We obtain the asymptotic distribution from the central limit theorem (assuming large time series), the multivariate delta method, and a third-order correction of its mean value. We discuss the applicability of other results (exact, first-, and second-order corrections) regarding their accuracy and numerical stability. Within a general framework for building test statistics about Shannon's entropy, we present a bilateral test that verifies if there is enough evidence to reject the hypothesis that two signals produce ordinal patterns with the same Shannon's entropy. We applied this bilateral test to the daily maximum temperature time series from three cities (Dublin, Edinburgh, and Miami) and obtained sensible results.
有序模式统计分析的最终目的是描述它们所诱导的特征的分布。特别是,对于一大类时间序列模型,如果能够知道对熵-统计复杂度这一对的联合分布,那么将可以进行目前无法进行的统计检验。在这个方向上,我们对任何模型的经验香农熵的渐近分布进行了特征描述,在这些模型中,真实的归一化熵既不为零也不为一。我们通过中心极限定理(假设时间序列很大)、多元 delta 方法和其三阶均值修正来得到渐近分布。我们讨论了其他结果(精确、一阶和二阶修正)的适用性,以及它们的准确性和数值稳定性。在关于香农熵的构建测试统计量的一般框架内,我们提出了一个双边检验,以验证是否有足够的证据拒绝两个信号产生具有相同香农熵的有序模式的假设。我们将这种双边检验应用于来自三个城市(都柏林、爱丁堡和迈阿密)的每日最高温度时间序列,并得到了有意义的结果。