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用于预测结直肠切除术后长时间术后肠梗阻的列线图。

Nomogram for prediction of prolonged postoperative ileus after colorectal resection.

机构信息

Department of Gastrointestinal Surgical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University & Fujian Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou, 350014, Fujian Province, China.

Department of Gastrointestinal Surgical Oncology, Fujian Provincial Hospital, Fuzhou, 350001, Fujian Province, China.

出版信息

BMC Cancer. 2022 Dec 6;22(1):1273. doi: 10.1186/s12885-022-10377-x.


DOI:10.1186/s12885-022-10377-x
PMID:36474177
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9724353/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Prolonged postoperative ileus (PPOI) is a major complication in patients undergoing colorectal resection. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk factors contributing to PPOI, and to develop an effective nomogram to determine the risks of this population. METHODS: A total of 1,254 patients with colorectal cancer who underwent radical colorectal resection at Fujian Cancer Hospital from March 2016 to August 2021 were enrolled as a training cohort in this study. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to determine the correlation between PPOI and clinicopathological characteristics. A nomogram predicting the incidence of PPOI was constructed. The cohort of 153 patients from Fujian Provincial Hospital were enrolled as a validation cohort. Internal and external validations were used to evaluate the prediction ability by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a calibration plot. RESULTS: In the training cohort, 128 patients (10.2%) had PPOI after colorectal resection. The independent predictive factors of PPOI were identified, and included gender, age, surgical approach and intraoperative fluid overload. The AUC of nomogram were 0.779 (95% CI: 0.736-0.822) and 0.791 (95%CI: 0.677-0.905) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. The two cohorts of calibration plots showed a good consistency between nomogram prediction and actual observation. CONCLUSIONS: A highly accurate nomogram was developed and validated in this study, which can be used to provide individual prediction of PPOI in patients after colorectal resection, and this predictive power can potentially assist surgeons to make the optimal treatment decisions.

摘要

背景:术后肠麻痹(PPOI)是结直肠切除术后患者的主要并发症。本研究旨在分析导致 PPOI 的危险因素,并建立一种有效的列线图来确定该人群的风险。

方法:本研究共纳入 2016 年 3 月至 2021 年 8 月在福建省肿瘤医院接受根治性结直肠切除术的 1254 例结直肠癌患者作为训练队列。采用单因素分析和多因素 logistic 回归分析确定 PPOI 与临床病理特征之间的相关性。构建预测 PPOI 发生率的列线图。来自福建省立医院的 153 例患者队列被纳入验证队列。采用受试者工作特征曲线(AUC)和校准图对内外部验证来评估预测能力。

结果:在训练队列中,128 例(10.2%)结直肠切除术后发生 PPOI。确定了 PPOI 的独立预测因素,包括性别、年龄、手术途径和术中液体超负荷。列线图在训练和验证队列中的 AUC 分别为 0.779(95%CI:0.736-0.822)和 0.791(95%CI:0.677-0.905)。校准图的两个队列均显示列线图预测与实际观察之间具有良好的一致性。

结论:本研究开发并验证了一种高度准确的列线图,可用于提供结直肠切除术后患者 PPOI 的个体预测,这种预测能力可能有助于外科医生做出最佳治疗决策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/2f67c94b78d8/12885_2022_10377_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/ddfb3d3cd478/12885_2022_10377_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/aaeddc80da74/12885_2022_10377_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/27e72e6d1843/12885_2022_10377_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/0d1e7a39beb2/12885_2022_10377_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/5bbc101b0da8/12885_2022_10377_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/2f67c94b78d8/12885_2022_10377_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/ddfb3d3cd478/12885_2022_10377_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/aaeddc80da74/12885_2022_10377_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/27e72e6d1843/12885_2022_10377_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/0d1e7a39beb2/12885_2022_10377_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/5bbc101b0da8/12885_2022_10377_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ec5/9724353/2f67c94b78d8/12885_2022_10377_Fig6_HTML.jpg

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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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World J Gastrointest Surg. 2024-5-27

本文引用的文献

[1]
Prevention and Management of Postoperative Ileus: A Review of Current Practice.

Cureus. 2022-2-27

[2]
Creation of a Novel Nomogram Based on the Direct Bilirubin-To-Indirect Bilirubin Ratio and Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels in Resectable Colorectal Cancer.

Front Mol Biosci. 2021-10-20

[3]
Post-operative ileus: definitions, mechanisms and controversies.

ANZ J Surg. 2022-1

[4]
Postoperative complications observed with robotic versus laparoscopic surgery for the treatment of rectal cancer: An updated meta-analysis of recently published studies.

Medicine (Baltimore). 2021-9-10

[5]
Male sex, ostomy, infection, and intravenous fluids are associated with increased risk of postoperative ileus in elective colorectal surgery.

Surgery. 2021-11

[6]
A Prediction Model for Severe Complications after Elective Colorectal Cancer Surgery in Patients of 70 Years and Older.

Cancers (Basel). 2021-6-22

[7]
Optimal Assessment of Frailty Predicts Postoperative Complications in Older Patients with Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

World J Surg. 2021-4

[8]
Prediction of Postoperative Ileus in Patients With Colorectal Cancer by Preoperative Gut Microbiota.

Front Oncol. 2020-11-25

[9]
The clinical and economical impact of postoperative ileus in patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

Neurogastroenterol Motil. 2020-8

[10]
Alterations of the Rectal Microbiome Are Associated with the Development of Postoperative Ileus in Patients Undergoing Colorectal Surgery.

J Gastrointest Surg. 2020-7

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