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Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality in Canada: The OncoSim All Cancers Model.

机构信息

Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada.

Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, ON, Canada.

出版信息

Prev Med. 2023 Mar;168:107425. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107425. Epub 2023 Jan 19.


DOI:10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107425
PMID:36681276
Abstract

Using the OncoSim All Cancers Model, we estimated the annual cancer incidence, mortality and cancer management costs in Canada from 2020 to 2040. Incidence for each cancer type was estimated from logistic regression analyses of the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2017), with province/territory, sex, five-year age groups and year as covariates. Deaths were estimated by sex and tumour site for cancers diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 (deaths to the end of 2017). The total cost of a cancer type was the sum of costs for individuals across four phases of cancer care. The projections presented in this study were generated based on a simulation of 32 million cases. The OncoSim All Cancers Model projects a 40% increase in the overall number of incident cancer cases from 2020 to 2040. The number of the four most commonly diagnosed cancers in Canada (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate) are projected to increase annually. The overall number of cancer deaths is projected to increase by 44% from 2020 to 2040. More cancer deaths are projected in males than in females. The age-standardized mortality rate is expected to remain relatively stable over time. Overall cancer management costs are projected to increase from $20.6B in 2020 to $31.4B in 2040. Due mainly to an aging population and population growth in Canada, we estimate that cancer incidence, mortality and cancer management costs will increase considerably between 2020 and 2040. These results highlight the importance of planning for increasing investment and capacity in cancer control.

摘要

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[2]
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[3]
Evaluation of population-based screening programs on colorectal cancer screening uptake and predictors in Atlantic Canada: insights from a repeated cross-sectional study.

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[4]
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[5]
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[6]
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