A probabilistic decision support tool for prediction and management of rainfall-related poor water quality events for a drinking water treatment plant.

A data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) model was developed for a large Australian drinking water treatment plant, whose raw water comes from a river into which a number of upstream dams outflow water and smaller tributaries flow. During wet weather events, the spatial distribution of rainfall has a crucial role on the incoming raw water quality, as runoff from specific sub-catchments usually causes significant turbidity and conductivity issues, as opposed to larger dam outflows which have typically better water quality. The BN relies on a conceptual model developed following expert consultation, as well as a combination of different types (e.g. water quality, flow, rainfall) and amount (e.g. high-frequency, daily, scarce depending on variable) of historical data. The validated model proved to have acceptable accuracy in predicting the probability of different incoming raw water quality ranges, and can be used to assess different scenarios (e.g. timing, flow) of dam water releases, for the purpose of achieving dilution of the tributary's poor-quality water and mitigate related drinking water treatment challenges.