Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, Granada, 18008, Andalucía, Spain.
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Münchener Str. 20, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234, Bayern, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2023 Feb 10;14(1):739. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5.
Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change.
闪电是自然野火的主要前兆，而长持续电流（LCC）闪电被认为是闪电引发野火（LIW）的主要点火源。先前的研究预测了全球总闪电发生率和空间模式的变化。然而，闪电引发野火发生对气候变化的敏感性尚不确定。在这里，我们研究了与闪电点火相关的基于空间的 LCC 闪电测量，并根据雷暴中上升气流强度的最新 LCC 闪电参数化，应用代表性浓度途径 RCP6.0 为 2090 年代提出了 LCC 闪电预测。我们发现 LCC 闪电闪烁率在全球范围内增加了 41%。增加幅度最大的地区是南美洲、北美洲西海岸、中美洲、澳大利亚、南亚和东亚以及欧洲，而在北极森林地区仅发现区域性变化，在这些地区，火灾风险可能会影响到永冻层土壤碳的释放。这些结果表明，需要包括 LCC 闪电在内的闪电方案来预测气候变化下闪电引发野火的发生。
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