Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, New York; Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Columbia University Medical Center and Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, New York.
University of Chicago, Section of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Chicago, Illinois.
Gastroenterology. 2023 Apr;164(5):812-827. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2023.02.021. Epub 2023 Feb 24.
Current colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations take a "one-size-fits-all" approach using age as the major criterion to initiate screening. Precision screening that incorporates factors beyond age to risk stratify individuals could improve on current approaches and optimally use available resources with benefits for patients, providers, and health care systems. Prediction models could identify high-risk groups who would benefit from more intensive screening, while low-risk groups could be recommended less intensive screening incorporating noninvasive screening modalities. In addition to age, prediction models incorporate well-established risk factors such as genetics (eg, family CRC history, germline, and polygenic risk scores), lifestyle (eg, smoking, alcohol, diet, and physical inactivity), sex, and race and ethnicity among others. Although several risk prediction models have been validated, few have been systematically studied for risk-adapted population CRC screening. In order to envisage clinical implementation of precision screening in the future, it will be critical to develop reliable and accurate prediction models that apply to all individuals in a population; prospectively study risk-adapted CRC screening on the population level; garner acceptance from patients and providers; and assess feasibility, resources, cost, and cost-effectiveness of these new paradigms. This review evaluates the current state of risk prediction modeling and provides a roadmap for future implementation of precision CRC screening.
目前的结直肠癌(CRC)筛查建议采用“一刀切”的方法,以年龄作为开始筛查的主要标准。将年龄以外的因素纳入风险分层,以对个体进行精准筛查,可以改进当前的方法,并优化利用现有资源,使患者、提供者和医疗保健系统受益。预测模型可以识别出需要更强化筛查的高风险群体,而低风险群体可以推荐采用非侵入性筛查方式进行较少强化的筛查。除了年龄之外,预测模型还纳入了已确立的风险因素,如遗传因素(例如,家族 CRC 病史、种系和多基因风险评分)、生活方式(例如,吸烟、饮酒、饮食和缺乏身体活动)、性别以及种族和民族等。尽管已经验证了几种风险预测模型,但很少有针对适应性人群 CRC 筛查的风险预测模型进行系统研究。为了设想未来精准筛查的临床实施,开发适用于人群中所有个体的可靠和准确的预测模型将至关重要;前瞻性地在人群层面上研究适应性 CRC 筛查;获得患者和提供者的认可;并评估这些新范式的可行性、资源、成本和成本效益。这篇综述评估了风险预测建模的现状,并为未来精准 CRC 筛查的实施提供了路线图。
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