Cao Liang, Jiang Yugang, Zhang Xiaotian, Gu Zhijiang, Liu Zhichao, Ding Lianshu
Department of Neurosurgery, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China.
Department of Neurosurgery, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China.
World Neurosurg. 2023 May;173:e478-e486. doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2023.02.084. Epub 2023 Feb 23.
BACKGROUND: Pineal parenchymal tumors are exceedingly rare, and optimal disease management has yet to be defined. In this study, we aimed to identify prognostic factors and establish a predictive model for the prognosis of patients with pineal parenchymal tumors. METHODS: All patients with pineal parenchymal tumors in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 1975 and 2019 were reviewed. Data were summarized, and survival was modeled with Cox regression analyses. In addition, a nomogram predicting 5- and 10-year survival probability for pineal parenchymal tumors was developed and validated. RESULTS: We found 691 pineal parenchymal and 1961 pineal region neoplasms during 1975 and 2019 resulting in an incidence of 35%. In total, 441 patients were excluded due to incomplete data. The final cohort was subdivided into groups based on tumor histology: pineocytomas, pineoblastomas, and pineal parenchymal tumors of intermediate differentiation. Multivariate Cox analysis identified age and beam radiation as prognostic factors in pineoblastomas. Age, histology, tumor size, extent of resection, radiation, and chemotherapy were selected to build a clinical nomogram. The C-index for the nomogram was 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.738-0.852). The calibration curves of the 5- and 10-year survival rates showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram is a convenient and precise tool for clinicians to evaluate prognosis of pineal parenchymal tumors.
背景:松果体实质肿瘤极为罕见,最佳疾病管理方案尚未明确。在本研究中,我们旨在确定预后因素并建立松果体实质肿瘤患者预后的预测模型。 方法:回顾了监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中1975年至2019年间所有松果体实质肿瘤患者。对数据进行总结,并用Cox回归分析对生存情况进行建模。此外,还开发并验证了一个预测松果体实质肿瘤5年和10年生存概率的列线图。 结果:我们在1975年至2019年间发现了691例松果体实质肿瘤和1961例松果体区域肿瘤,发病率为35%。共有441例患者因数据不完整被排除。最终队列根据肿瘤组织学分为:松果体细胞瘤、松果体母细胞瘤和中间分化的松果体实质肿瘤。多变量Cox分析确定年龄和束状放疗是松果体母细胞瘤的预后因素。选择年龄、组织学、肿瘤大小、切除范围、放疗和化疗来构建临床列线图。列线图的C指数为0.795(95%置信区间0.73 8-0.852)。5年和10年生存率的校准曲线显示列线图预测与实际观察结果之间具有良好的一致性。 结论:该列线图是临床医生评估松果体实质肿瘤预后的便捷而精确的工具。
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