Hwang Jisoo
College of Liberal Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
Demography. 2023 Apr 1;60(2):563-582. doi: 10.1215/00703370-10585316.
South Korea and other developed regions in East Asia have become forerunners of prolonged lowest-low fertility. South Korea's total fertility rate has been below 1.3 for two decades, the longest duration among OECD countries. Using vital statistics and census data, I study recent trends in the country's cohort fertility covering women born before the 1960s to those born in the 1980s. Analyzing outcomes at both the intensive margin of fertility (i.e., timing and number of children) and the extensive margin of family formation (i.e., marriage and childlessness), I document three novel patterns. First, the driver of low fertility has evolved across birth cohorts, from married women having later and fewer childbirths, to fewer women getting married, and finally to fewer women having children even if married. Second, a decomposition analysis of marriage and fertility changes indicates that the marriage and fertility decline was driven by changes within educational groups rather than by changes in women's educational composition. Third, the relationship between women's educational attainment and marriage or fertility was negative for the 1960s cohort, but an inverted U-shaped education gradient emerged beginning with the 1970s cohort.
韩国和东亚其他发达地区已成为长期超低生育率的先行者。韩国的总和生育率在二十年里一直低于1.3，在经合组织国家中持续时间最长。利用人口动态统计数据和人口普查数据，我研究了该国从20世纪60年代以前出生的女性到80年代出生的女性的同期群生育率近期趋势。通过分析生育率的集约边际（即生育时间和子女数量）和家庭形成的粗放边际（即婚姻和无子女情况）的结果，我记录了三种新趋势。第一，低生育率的驱动因素在不同出生同期群中有所演变，从已婚女性生育时间推迟且生育子女数量减少，到结婚女性数量减少，最后到即使已婚生育子女的女性数量也减少。第二，对婚姻和生育率变化的分解分析表明，婚姻和生育率下降是由教育群体内部的变化而非女性教育构成的变化驱动的。第三，20世纪60年代同期群中，女性受教育程度与婚姻或生育率之间呈负相关，但从70年代同期群开始出现了倒U形的教育梯度。
