Value of three annual blood pressure determinations in young adults as a predictor of elevated systolic blood pressure 15 years later.

The records of 726 male air force personnel aged 18 to 34 years in 1968 were searched for the results of examination of the systolic blood pressure (SBP) in 1968 and during the following 15 years ending in 1983. An elevated recent blood pressure (BP), defined as an SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg on two or more of the last three follow-up examinations, done 13, 14, and 15 years after entry, was found in 3.2% of the cohort. An elevated recent BP was found in 12% of those with an SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg on the first examination, in 31.7% (13 of 41 individuals) of those with an SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg on two or more of the three initial annual examinations, and in 46.2% (6 of 13 men) of those with an SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg on all three initial examinations. It is concluded that three annual determinations of SBP are better predictors of elevated SBP than a single causal BP measurement on entry. Still, their predictive value remains limited; 49% of those with an SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg on two or more of the three initial annual examinations had a normal SBP on all of the last three annual examinations.