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奥塔哥新西兰预警评分与国家预警评分在生命体征数据集预测不良住院事件中的比较。

Comparison of the Aotearoa New Zealand Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score to predict adverse inpatient events in a vital sign dataset.

机构信息

Department of Neurosurgery, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand.

Department of Neurosurgery, Albany Medical Center, Albany, NY, USA.

出版信息

Anaesthesia. 2023 Jul;78(7):830-839. doi: 10.1111/anae.16007. Epub 2023 Mar 29.

Abstract

Aotearoa New Zealand uses a single early warning score (EWS) across all public and private hospitals to detect adult inpatient physiological deterioration. This combines the aggregate weighted scoring of the UK National Early Warning Score with single parameter activation from Australian medical emergency team systems. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a large vital sign dataset to validate the predictive performance of the New Zealand EWS in discriminating between patients at risk of serious adverse events and compared this with the UK EWS. We also compared predictive performance for patients admitted under medical vs. surgical specialties. A total of 1,738,787 aggregate scores (13,910,296 individual vital signs) were obtained from 102,394 hospital admissions to six hospitals within the Canterbury District Health Board of New Zealand's South Island. Predictive performance of each scoring system was determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Analysis showed that the New Zealand EWS is equivalent to the UK EWS in predicting patients at risk of serious adverse events (cardiac arrest, death and/or unanticipated ICU admission). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for both EWSs for any adverse outcome was 0.874 (95%CI 0.871-0.878) and 0.874 (95%CI 0.870-0.877), respectively. Both EWSs showed superior predictive value for cardiac arrest and/or death in patients admitted under surgical rather than medical specialties. Our study is the first validation of the New Zealand EWS in predicting serious adverse events in a broad dataset and supports previous work showing the UK EWS has superior predictive performance in surgical rather than medical patients.

摘要

新西兰使用单一的早期预警评分(EWS)来检测成人住院患者的生理恶化情况,该评分综合了英国国家早期预警评分(National Early Warning Score,NEWS)的加权总和,以及澳大利亚医疗急救团队系统的单一参数激活。我们对大量生命体征数据进行了回顾性分析,以验证新西兰 EWS 在区分有严重不良事件风险的患者方面的预测性能,并将其与英国 EWS 进行了比较。我们还比较了内科和外科患者的预测性能。我们从新西兰南岛坎特伯雷地区卫生局的六家医院的 102394 次住院中获得了 1738787 次总评分(13910296 个个体生命体征)。使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积来确定每个评分系统的预测性能。分析表明,新西兰 EWS 在预测有严重不良事件(心脏骤停、死亡和/或意外 ICU 入院)风险的患者方面与英国 EWS 相当。两种 EWS 预测任何不良结局的受试者工作特征曲线下面积均为 0.874(95%CI 0.871-0.878)和 0.874(95%CI 0.870-0.877)。对于接受外科而非内科治疗的患者,两种 EWS 对心脏骤停和/或死亡的预测价值均更高。我们的研究首次验证了新西兰 EWS 在广泛数据集预测严重不良事件方面的有效性,并支持了之前的研究结果,即英国 EWS 在外科患者而非内科患者中的预测性能更高。

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