School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China.
School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jul 1;880:163470. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163470. Epub 2023 Apr 17.
Global climate change and rapid urbanization, mainly driven by anthropogenic activities, lead to urban flood vulnerability and uncertainty in sustainable stormwater management. This study projected the temporal and spatial variation in urban flood susceptibility during the period 2020-2050 on the basis of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). A case study in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was conducted for verifying the feasibility and applicability of this approach. GBA is predicted to encounter the increase in extreme precipitation with high intensity and frequency, along with rapid expansion of constructed areas, resulting in exacerbating of urban flood susceptibility. The areas with medium and high flood susceptibility will be expected to increase continuously from 2020 to 2050, by 9.5 %, 12.0 %, and 14.4 % under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In terms of the assessment of spatial-temporal flooding pattern, the areas with high flood susceptibility are overlapped with that in the populated urban center in GBA, surrounding the existing risk areas, which is consistent with the tendency of construction land expansion. The approach in the present study will provide comprehensive insights into the reliable and accurate assessment of urban flooding susceptibility in response to climate change and urbanization.
全球气候变化和快速城市化，主要由人为活动驱动，导致城市洪水脆弱性和可持续雨水管理的不确定性。本研究基于共享社会经济途径（SSP）预测了 2020-2050 年期间城市洪水易感性的时空变化。以粤港澳大湾区（GBA）为例进行了验证，以验证该方法的可行性和适用性。预计 GBA 将面临高强度和高频率的极端降水增加，以及建成区的快速扩张，这将导致城市洪水易感性加剧。在 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下，中高洪水易感性区域预计将分别持续增加 9.5%、12.0%和 14.4%。就时空洪水模式评估而言，高洪水易感性区域与 GBA 人口稠密的城市中心重叠，环绕现有的风险区域，这与建设用地扩张的趋势一致。本研究中的方法将为应对气候变化和城市化提供可靠和准确的城市洪水易感性评估提供全面的见解。
