Evaluation of linkage relationships between carbon emissions and economic development based on the decoupling model and the VAR model: a case study of Shanxi Province (China).

Economic development is the core driver of carbon emissions. It is of great significance to clarify the linkage relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. Therefore, the static and dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in Shanxi Province is analyzed by using the VAR model and decoupling model combined with data from 2001 to 2020. The results show that economic development and carbon emissions in Shanxi Province have mainly presented a weak decoupling state in the past 20 years, but the decoupling state is gradually increasing. Meanwhile, carbon emissions and economic development constitute a bidirectional cycle dynamic system. The impact of economic development on itself and carbon emissions account for 60% and 40%, respectively, while the impact of carbon emissions on itself and economic development accounts for 71% and 29%, respectively. This study provides a relevant theoretical basis for solving the problem of excessive dependence on energy consumption in economic development.