Multi-temporal assessment of land surface temperatures as an indicator of land use/cover changes and climate variability in the Develi Basin, Turkey.

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter that reflects land surface processes of water and energy balance and has been used in assessment of land use/cover changes. However, the use of LST in monitoring changes in non-urban areas such as agricultural areas and wetlands is still limited. In this study, we aim to determine the spatial and temporal changes in LST in a semi-arid agricultural basin in Turkey (Develi Basin), where land use/cover and climatic conditions showed considerable variability since 1980s. Irrigated agriculture have expanded in the basin since 1987, after the construction of a large irrigation project. The basin hosts an internationally important wetland, called the Sultan Marshes, affected negatively by irrigation expansion. The study covers a 39-year period from 1984 to 2022. Four Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images acquired in 1984, 1987, 2003, and 2007 and two Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS images acquired in 2014 and 2022 were used in the analyses. The land use/cover changes were evaluated based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). LST was estimated through top-of-atmosphere brightness temperature from thermal bands of Landsat images. Climate variability from 2014 to 2022 was analyzed with statistical methods. The results indicated that Develi Basin faced both spatial and temporal land use/cover changes. The area covered with natural steppe vegetation and water bodies decreased in the basin. In contrast, the sparsely and densely vegetated soil covers, which mostly denote agricultural areas, increased. Changes in LST values were observed from 1984 to 2022 as a result of climatic factors and land use/cover changes. LST changes were variable across different land use/cover types; LST decreased in irrigated areas and increased in lakes that went dry over years. LST changes proved useful for evaluating land use/cover changes and climatic variations in agricultural basins.