Role of climatic variability in shaping intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance in Mediterranean water beetles.

The climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) predicts that organisms in more thermally variable environments have wider thermal breadths and higher thermal plasticity than those from more stable environments. However, due to evolutionary trade-offs, taxa with greater absolute thermal limits may have little plasticity of such limits (trade-off hypothesis). The CVH assumes that climatic variability is the ultimate driver of thermal tolerance variation across latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, but average temperature also varies along such gradients. We explored intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance in three typical Mediterranean saline water beetles (families Hydrophilidae and Dytiscidae). For each species, we compared two populations where the species coexist, with similar annual mean temperature but contrasting thermal variability (continental vs. coastal population). We estimated thermal limits of adults from each population, previously acclimated at 17, 20, or 25 °C. We found species-specific patterns but overall, our results agree with the CVH regarding thermal ranges, which were wider in the continental (more variable) population. In the two hydrophilid species, this came at the cost of losing plasticity of the upper thermal limit in this population, supporting the trade-off hypothesis, but not in the dytiscid one. Our results support the role of local adaptation to thermal variability and trade-offs between basal tolerance and physiological plasticity in shaping thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms, but also suggest that intraspecific variation of thermal tolerance does not fit a general pattern among aquatic insects. Overlooking such intraspecific variation could lead to inaccurate predictions of the vulnerability of aquatic insects to global warming.