Incorporating species-specific morphology improves model predictions of thermal and hydric stress in the sand fiddler crab, Leptuca pugilator.

Understanding where and why organisms are experiencing thermal and hydric stress is critical for predicting species' responses to climate change. Biophysical models that explicitly link organismal functional traits like morphology, physiology, and behavior to environmental conditions can provide valuable insight into determinants of thermal and hydric stress. Here we use a combination of direct measurements, 3D modeling, and computational fluid dynamics to develop a detailed biophysical model of the sand fiddler crab, Leptuca pugilator. We compare the detailed model's performance to a model using a simpler ellipsoidal approximation of a crab. The detailed model predicted crab body temperatures within 1 °C of observed in both laboratory and field settings; the ellipsoidal approximation model predicted body temperatures within 2 °C of observed body temperatures. Model predictions are meaningfully improved through efforts to incorporate species-specific morphological properties rather than relying on simple geometric approximations. Experimental evaporative water loss (EWL) measurements indicate that L. pugilator can modify its permeability to EWL as a function of vapor density gradients, providing novel insight into physiological thermoregulation in the species. Body temperature and EWL predictions made over the course of a year at a single site demonstrate how such biophysical models can be used to explore mechanistic drivers and spatiotemporal patterns of thermal and hydric stress, providing insight into current and future distributions in the face of climate change.